It's perhaps premature to ask what changes smut peddler Larry Flynt would make to the General Plan Guidelines, or where buxom billboard celebrity Angelyne stands on the latest wrinkles in the California Environmental Quality Act. But with the recall election only a month away -- and two statewide propositions on the special ballot along with the recall -- it's not too early to speculate on how the whole October 7 circus will affect the world of planning and development in California. The circus comes at an interesting time, and it has intriguing components. Though never a strong advocate of land use reform, Democratic Gov. Gray Davis has gradually begun to tackle land use and growth issues, partly because of legislative mandates and partly because of the inclinations of his appointees. Prior to the recall, the conventional wisdom was that most of his likely Democratic successors — including Treasurer Phil Angelides and Attorney General Bill Lockyer — would probably tackle land use issues head-on. But a light recession, a deep budget deficit, and a different governor could throw that assumption out the window. Perhaps the most overlooked part of the October 7 ballot is Proposition 53, which would earmark 1% of the state's general fund for infrastructure investment. Voters might not notice Proposition 53 at all, given the recall circus and the presence of Proposition 54, Ward Connerly's controversial ballot measure restricting the collection of racial and ethnic data, which is sure to get far more publicity. As governor, Davis is responsible for implementing one of the most important growth policy changes in California during the last decade — AB 857, which requires state agencies to pursue infill development, compact greenfield development, and agriculture and open space protection as statewide goals (see CP&DR, October 2002). Davis placed the Governor's Office of Planning and Research in charge of implementation and, in a related move, promised to issue the Environmental Goals and Policies Report, which essentially serves as the governor's growth policy statement. No governor has issued this report in 25 years, not even Davis's predecessor Pete Wilson, who as a lawmaker carried the legislation requiring it. The AB 857 implementation plan is required to go to the Legislature this fall. But if Davis is out of office on October 7, what will happen to these efforts? If Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante succeeds Davis, the efforts might continue. However, Bustamante has already begun to distance himself from Davis — in supporting a repeal of the car-tax increase, for example — so he might take a different approach on growth as well. The conventional Republican politicians in the race are mostly conservative. In his race against Davis last year, Bill Simon issued a thoughtful and comprehensive — though very market-oriented — policy paper on housing and growth (see CP&DR Insight, September 2002). State Sen. Tom McClintock, an anti-tax activist, can be counted on to toe the anti-regulation line. As for Arnold Schwarzenegger, he has not tipped his hand yet about planning and development or, indeed, many policy issues at all. And he may not do so before the election. Yet despite the hype surrounding his campaign, Schwarzenegger may take growth policy seriously. His position as a moderate Republican -- and his experience as a real estate investor -- makes for an intriguing set of possibilities. Schwarzenegger is positioning himself as a fiscal conservative and a social liberal. He's also relying heavily on political advisors to former Gov. Wilson. Although land use reform at the state level typically is viewed as a Democratic issue, moderate Republicans are often the most credible purveyors of innovative land use ideas. Wilson was a growth management mayor in San Diego and went to Sacramento with a strong land use reform agenda. In the 1980s, New Jersey's land use reform was engineered by Tom Kean, a moderate Republican governor. And while Florida's growth management law was signed by Democratic Gov. Bob Graham, it was largely implemented by his moderate Republican successor, Bob Martinez. Still, it is not surprising that moderate governors often get caught up in hardball Republican politics on land use issues sooner or later, especially if a recession is looming and Republicans want to hammer development regulations as the cause. Wilson got sidetracked from land use reform by a recession, a budget deficit, and his need to cater to Republican right-wing legislators. Martinez had to back off of Graham's deal to place a sales tax on services to pay for infrastructure required by the Florida growth management law, a move that harmed the law's effectiveness from the get-go. Schwarzenegger has no policy record except his support of an initiative favoring preschool funding last year. Yet his track record as a business investor suggests that he has a working knowledge of both greenfield and infill development issues. His portfolio features several major investments in development projects. The actor owns a big chunk of Santa Monica's Main Street and also invests in the construction of AMC movie theaters — both of which have benefited from a wide variety of public urban development subsidies. He also has major investments in a shopping mall near Akron, Ohio, and a real estate investment company focusing on the Sorrento Mesa area north of San Diego. Obviously, Schwarzenegger's approach would be driven in part by his appointees and in part by practical politics. If he selects moderate Republicans as cabinet secretaries and department heads — as Wilson did, at the beginning of his administration — then we might see further movement on implementing AB 857, reforming CEQA to favor infill projects, and the like. If Schwarzenegger himself is personally interested in these issues — as he might be, given his business record — then we might see the kind of gubernatorial shove these issues often need to move forward. If, on the other hand, Schwarzenegger finds himself in the same kind of situation that trapped Wilson — needing caveman Republicans in the Legislature to pass a budget, especially during a recession — he might find growth policy expendable. A lot depends on the perception of who has got political power after the recall. Gov. Schwarzenegger would have much more clout if he wins with 45% of the vote rather than 15%. Although we don't know where Arnold is coming from, we should not overlook the candidates who have taken on planning and development issues head-on in this campaign. In an interview in the East Bay Express, former child actor Gary Coleman positioned himself as strongly pro-infill and even called for a return of the days of urban renewal. "We got so much land that's not being used; we could do so much with that," he told the Express. "We could move people away for a year and bring them back into something nice. Move a thousand people out, make sure you leave enough space for them to come back, but you've added value to the place, a new mini-mall, a couple of hundred more houses." He also positioned himself in favor of express buses and light rail. So far this stance has not given Coleman's campaign much traction. Then there is the hilarious Los Angeles Times columnist Steve Lopez, who is running a write-in campaign as an ongoing joke in his column. Lopez has not been afraid to deal with land use in the campaign. When the Coastal Commission was considering whether to legalize a Malibu pitch-and-putt golf course built illegally by big Davis contributor Jerrold Perenchio, S-Lo figured he could wheedle a big contribution out of Perenchio too. He showed up at Perenchio's house with his clubs but was turned away at the security gate. True to form, S-Lo holed out from a weed patch in the middle of Pacific Coast Highway. As for Angelyne, we assume she's against restrictions on billboards.