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- COVID Crisis Revives Debate About How Public Space Is Used
In the late 2000s, the parklets craze swept through cities, symbolizing what was then a nascent movement to reclaim street space from cars. San Francisco permitted some two-dozen of them and became, arguably, the parklet capital of the world. But what was a clever amenity with a cute name may become a lifeline for some urban businesses struggling amid the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout. Widespread permitting of parklets is one of the ways that cities are repurposing public and semi-public spaces to create more room for pedestrians to practice social distancing – and for businesses to operate safely in the open air. “Given the limited vehicular traffic that we have on the streets now with people sheltering in place…this presents a unique opportunity to reclaim our public spaces for public use,” said Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin. In recent weeks, cities throughout California have fast-tracked programs and permitting schemes to allow restaurants to set up dining areas in parking lots and on sidewalks. Cities are also allowing fitness and yoga studios to take over public space for classes. Most ambitiously, some cities are closing off streets to traffic entirely in order to allow residents to walk, job, and ride bikes — either for fitness or for commuting — without having to compete with cars. Some programs and proposals around the state include:
- CP&DR News Briefs June 2, 2020: Prop. 13 Split Roll; Homeless Housing; Big Oil & Climate Change; and More
Newsom Proposes Loosening of CEQA for Homeless Housing Gov. Gavin Newsom is proposing waiving CEQA regulations for cities and counties that want to convert hotels into homeless housing using federal coronavirus relief funding. His plan was sent to the California Legislature to be added to the state budget negotiations in the form of a "trailer bill" addition to budget talks. It could have a huge effect in cities like San Francisco, where more than 1,100 hotel rooms are housing homeless people as part of the governor's "Project Roomkey" initiative, which has acquired 15,000 hotel rooms statewide. San Francisco Mayor London Breed has expressed support for the plan; hotel industry leaders say they want to examine the proposal before taking a position on it. Homeless organizations have said it could be a win-win in the future, ensuring revenue for hotel owners who might struggle in the economic downturn while at the same time creating cheap homeless housing. Project Roomkey has received a chilly welcome in some California cities that are currently suing the state to prevent vulnerable homeless from taking up residence in their city. For previous CP&DR coverage of CEQA and homelessness, click here . “Split-Roll” Prop. 13 Measure Qualifies for November Ballot A measure that would revise Proposition 13 has qualified for the November ballot, having garnered well over the million signatures required for inclusion on the ballot. If passed, the measure will allow cities to assess property taxes on commercial and industrial properties at their full market value as determined by regular assessments. Since 1978 when Prop. 13 passed, cities have only been allowed to reassess property value for taxation purposes when those properties are sold. The new initiative, dubbed "Schools and Communities First," would maintain the Prop 13 limits for small business, agricultural land, and residential property. Backers of the initiative say as much as $12 billion each year could be made available for schools and local government through the revised tax policy. (See prior CP&DR commentary .) Cities May Sue Oil Companies over Climate Change A panel of federal judges ruled that California cities and counties can sue oil companies for damages related to climate change in state court, where cases may be easier to win than at the federal level. The decision was in response to a suit brought by five cities and three counties, including San Francisco, that are seeking financial help to build seawalls and strengthen infrastructure in preparation for rising seas and extreme weather. The Ninth Circuit Court also validated a separate ruling by another federal judge who allowed California courts to take up climate cases submitted by the counties of San Mateo, Marin and Santa Cruz and the cities of Richmond, Santa Cruz and Imperial Beach (San Diego County). None of the legal efforts has yet to be deliberated on their merits - that may soon change now that the procedural matter of jurisdiction appears closer to being settled. Quick Hits & Updates At least 40 California cities have banded together to lobby for direct federal money to cities with fewer than 500,000 residents on a per capita basis to be used to replace lost revenue due to impacts of COVID-19. The group, which calls itself the California Mayors Coalition, cited the $6.7 billion in expected lost revenues to the State's 482 cities - the overwhelming majority of which did not meet the 500,000-resident threshold needed to receive funds from the CARES Act. (See related CP&DR commentary .) A judge sided with Metro and the Federal Transit Administration against Beverly Hills High School , ruling Metro it did not act in bad faith in its decision to tunnel the Purple Line subway extension under Beverly Hills High School. The judges ruling notes that transit authorities fulfilled their obligation to thoroughly document the selection process. (See related CP&DR commentary .) Under a new bill that passed committee and will go to the State Senate floor, distressed restaurants and nonprofits that have experienced a 40-percent drop in revenue or have limited their capacity to accommodate social distancing will have increased bargaining power with landlords. The bill would prohibit landlords from evicting tenants, allow tenants to walk away from leases with minimum financial penalties, and give them a year to pay back rent. (See related CP&DR commentary .) Faced with a state budget deficit, Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed "pausing" three-quarters of a billion dollars worth of renovation work planned for state buildings in downtown Sacramento. According to the budget summary, "With an increased remote workforce, the administration... will evaluate the state's real estate portfolio to determine which agencies and departments may be able to reduce lease space." The Sacramento Transportation Authority voted to endorse a half-cent sales tax measure, which is expected to generate $8 billion for transportation improvements. The Board of Supervisors will take the measure up next in July, voting to formally put the tax, called Measure A, on the ballot. The Del Mar City Council will consider a resolution to seal a 464-page EIR that was prepared for a blufftop resort that didn't pass muster at the ballot box. The developer asked for the draft EIR to be kept on file for future use, but opponents of the resort say the draft EIR study failed to take into account crucial climate change factors like increased storm intensity and bluff erosion. Under a plan put forward by a coalition of environmental and municipal groups, the decommissioned Potter Valley Project would be completely overhauled to improve Eel River fish passage and fisheries. The plan calls for one of the two dams--Scott's Dam--to be removed altogether, draining Lake Pillsbury. To move forward, the group will need approval from the FERC. To meet growing regulatory challenges, the California Geologic Energy Management Division launched an initiative to standardize buffer zones between oil facilities and sensitive sites like schools, residences, and hospitals. The initiative has been opposed by the oil industry but praised by environmental activists. The Santa Barbara City Council voted to move forward with an expedited accessory dwelling unit plan to speed downtown housing development, a move seemingly spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. The council plans to vote on all 20 amendments by July 21 - a full six months earlier than expected. Los Angeles City Council will take up a proposal that would use "Art Development Fees," or fees paid by developers of large projects to fund public art events, as relief grants to small art organizations. Ordinarily those fees would go toward festivals, art exhibitions, and cultural diversity events, but could now be critical to keeping art and cultural institutions solvent until COVID-19 closures are lifted. Upon learning Gov. Gavin Newsom and Oakland Coliseum director Henry Gardner were in talks of using the Coliseum as a potential "surge site" for treating COVID-19 patients, the Oakland A's baseball team said the A's will defer rent payment until they "have a better understanding of when the Coliseum will be available for our use." Gardner says the agency has "every expectation" the payment would be made on time.
- Exploring California's Urban Mystique
This essay is excerpted from the introduction to The Urban Mystique , newly published by Solimar Books. You can purchase the book here . The notion of a childhood origin story remains relevant to anyone who lives in cities because, in many ways, everyone who lives in a city is still a child. Whether we live in Beacon Hill or Greenwich Village, Livermore or Santa Clarita, or Richmond or Compton, we are all passive subjects to the decisions made by planners and developers years and generations ago. Too many Americans are resigned to living and working in mediocre places. Too many of them, like the homemakers invoked by the title of this book, live in quiet desperation, unaware of the impact their environments have on them and unable to do anything about it. Therein lies the urban mystique. Feminist pioneer Betty Friedan described the “feminine mystique” as a sense of tension and ambiguity about women’s roles in the 1950s, especially in suburbia. For her, gender roles, and gender discrimination, were directly tied to urban form. The wonderful things about homemaking—raising children, living comfortably, contributing to a loving marriage—contrasted with feelings of isolation, boredom, and purposelessness, among others. I tend to apply that sense of tension and mixed feelings to many other aspects of the American, and Californian, urban experience. I've never been a homemaker. But I grew up in Los Angeles, in one of its many not-quite-urban, not-quite-suburban neighborhoods. I was steeped equally in the city’s mythology and its imperfections. Cities are wonderful places, but they can be terrible places too—sometimes all at once. Cities’ mystique lies in the idea that their value is not necessarily evident or definable. The urban mystique is different for everyone. But, as Freidan implies, we must at least acknowledge that it exists. We must acknowledge that cities can be special places and that they must not simply be a collection of demographic data, economic output, and real estate transactions. Why are they special? Because people are special. And more people live in cities than anywhere else. Cities are where some people go to survive and where some people go to chase, and sometimes achieve, their highest ambitions. Cities will never be “perfect” the way the suburbs have been rumored to be. They can be better than perfect, though, as long as we don’t pretend that perfection should be the goal. And, ideally, they require everyone to contribute to their evolution. Urban life should center on inspiration and improvement, not passivity and resignation. I’ve been lucky enough to write during a fascinating decade. Cities have grown more quickly in other decades (1980s). And they have suffered more problems in still others (1970s). But, I’d argue, the 2010s have been about as interesting it gets. Much of the stuff about which I am most cranky has been improving. Many of my fellow members of Gen X feel just as I did about their upbringing and have been working like crazy to reclaim the urban experience for themselves and the next generation (and their parents’ generations, in some cases). Principles of smart growth, new urbanism, and environmentalism have permeated the mainstream so fully that we rarely even refer to them as such anymore. What makes Los Angeles frustrating and unpleasant is the very same thing that makes it fascinating: it was built imperfectly, at an imperfect time. Now, Los Angeles—along with the rest of California—is trying to reinvent itself. That’s a difficult process: to shoehorn a new city into the old. In a 2015 CP&DR article on Los Angeles’s new mobility plan, I equated the process of urban redevelopment to the infusion of adamantium into the bones of Wolverine. It’s the geekiest thing I’ve ever written (and I don’t even like comic books), but it’s apt because, well, they are both unspeakably painful processes. This evolution stretches all the way back to Frederick Jackson Turner’s Frontier Thesis, on which I wrote my undergraduate thesis. He described the continent’s endless tracts of empty land as America’s escape valve and the thing that made America uniquely American. Turner pronounced the Frontier “closed” in 1890. By then, San Francisco had a population of 300,000 and Los Angeles 50,000. But the Frontier found new life in the suburbs, as cities expanded and conquered their own hinterlands. That lasted for another century. This process is what Los Angeles Chief Design Officer Christopher Hawthorne refers to as the “Third L.A.”—the pioneer city and the post-World War II boom town being the first two. I’ve called it “the backwash of sprawl.” The unseemly metaphor is deliberate. We’ve built some heinous stuff: cheap, low-density development from the coast to the mountains to the desert. Now this form of urbanism faces a reckoning. The political element of these challenges has gotten more contentious and more colorful of late. Several of these pieces refer to the rise of the YIMBY (“yes in my backyard”) movement and its venerable predecessor and antagonist, the NIMBY movement. Both have gotten more active with the rise of the housing crisis in the early 2010s, as the recession wore off and young Californians with disposable incomes—and penchants for urban living—found themselves with far too many homes to choose from. This debate also includes the social justice community, which rightfully fears for low-income residents who are being displaced, and it includes what I call the “radical left,” which is more outspoken, more militant, and reviles for-profit development. That’s why, for every great new development, be it a renovated loft building, light rail line, affordable housing complex, or community garden, there are countless others who cherish (or at least tolerate) the 20th century model of urbanism. And there are discontents who, either out of spite or genuine concern for their livelihood, resist the changes that many of us believe cities need. In that sense, the title of Bill Fulton’s book The Reluctant Metropolis is as apt as ever. Any place housing 15 million people is nothing if not a metropolis. But many of Los Angeles’s citizens still resist metropolitan life. They didn’t buy into it 50 years ago—when center cities were genuinely unpleasant (and when white people were more overtly racist)—and they don’t want to buy into it today. Sometimes, the best thing you can say about Californians is that we couldn’t care less about one another: you do your thing, I’ll do mine. That attitude might be great if, say, you want to become a Hollywood star or just put food on the table as a day laborer, but it is not a recipe for a great city. In Los Angeles and across the state, we do some things really well and some things really badly—sometimes at the same time. We protect some environmental treasures while bulldozing others. We preserve historic architecture while putting up crap left and right. Most notably, I think, we have ourselves one of the most spectacular natural environments in the developed world, and, excepting some gems, we delight in sullying it with utterly mediocre cityscapes. On the days when Los Angeles gets me down, I find some solace in looking up at the Santa Monica Mountains. To its credit, Los Angeles gets better year by year—in some ways. I get excited about new transit lines and many of the new developments. Sure, I try to stay balanced and objective in my news reporting, but I’m still a human being and a resident. The city is different enough now to keep me interested. I realize, of course, that the things I love aren’t universally loved. Much of the backlash against so-called gentrification and hipster-fication is understandable (if not always warranted). My fear, which I imply in several of these pieces, is that these rivalries are going to lead to stagnation, at best. I hope they will not. Our greatest challenge is to make sure that urban life serves everyone so that rich and poor, marginalized and powerful are all enriched by one another. You can purchase The Urban Mystique here .
- CP&DR Podcast: Interview with APA President Julia Lave Johnston
CP&DR Contributing Editor Josh Stephens speaks with California APA President Julia Lave Johnston about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the planning profession. Click here for access on other podcasting platforms, including Spotify. Related Articles Virus Crisis Forces Planning to Go Virtual Planners Should Not Let Density Debate Infect Their Work Q&A: Julia Lave Johnston (Nov. 8, 2015)
- CP&DR Vol. 35 No. 5 May 2020
CP&DR Vol. 35 No. 5 May 2020
- Concord Naval Base Deal Falls Apart
From 1942 to 2007, the Concord Naval Weapons Station, a two-site 13,000-acre facility in and around the Contra Costa County suburb of Concord, played a significant role in post-World War II national defense. Since its decommissioning in 2007, the base has been the subject of a new battle, this time over its transformation into one of the Bay Area’s largest master-planned developments. A treaty seemed imminent earlier this year but has given way to a stalemate that could rival that of the Cold War. In March the Concord City Council was on the verge of approving a $6 billion proposal by Lennar to build almost 13,000 housing units and 5 million square feet of retail and commercial space on roughly half of the 5,028 acres located within the Concord city limits. The other half would be reserved for parks and open space. As is often the case with projects of regional import, Lennar’s proposal met its match in local politics. But now the project has fallen apart, at least partly because of failed negotiations between the developer, Lennar, and the local Building Trades Council. In mid-March, the city council voted against extending the agreement’s March 31 expiration, effectively killing Lennar’s project. Concord will continue with the project without Lennar and plans to begin its search for a new master developer before the end of this year, assuming the COVID-19 crisis calms. In 2007, the Navy deemed the facility surplus land in Round 5 of its multiyear Base Realignment and Closure program and stated its intent to transfer the land to the city. Phase one of the development - 500 acres of land to be developed into more than 4,400 housing units – began in 2013. In the housing-strapped Bay Area, the full build-out represents what the city website refers to as a “once in a lifetime opportunity.” Concord chose Lennar Concord, LLC, and Lennar subsidiary Five Point as the project’s master developer in 2013 – a decision that itself proved divisive for stakeholders who disagreed over how the project’s potential could be best realized.
- CP&DR News Briefs May 26, 2020: Housing Legislation, Homelessness in L.A., Wildfires, and More
Senate Democrats Introduce Mini-Package of Housing Bills California Senate Democrats have announced a new legislative housing package that aims to boost housing supply with more moderate proposals that reduce planning costs and streamline approval processes. Scott Weiner's Senate Bill 902, his followup to SB 50 would allow local governments to skip the environmental review process for projects up to 10 units if buildings are located close to jobs and transportation. Senate Bill 995 expands the streamlined CEQA process to smaller housing projects with 15 percent affordable units. Cities would be encouraged to streamline duplex construction for homeowners who qualify in smaller neighborhoods under Senate Bill 1120. The bill would also allow them to divide their lots to build two duplexes, for four units total. Another bill, SB 1085, targets the "missing middle": cities and counties would be able to grant a density bonus if developers agree to allocate a number of units for a project as affordable and below 30 percent of the market rate. The package does not include new state dollars to building low-income housing - a reality brought on by an estimated $54 billion budget deficit. Los Angeles Ordered to Clear Homeless Away from Freeways Under a preliminary injunction issued by a U.S. District Court judge, Los Angeles city and county officials have been ordered to provide shelter or alternative housing to the roughly 7,000 Los Angeles residents who live under or in the immediate vicinity of a freeway. Of the estimated 60,000 homeless across Los Angeles County, those near freeways face special risks, the judge wrote in the ruling, not only from contracting COVID-19, but also from exposure to pollution, carcinogens, and being hit by cars. It's unclear how city, county and homelessness officials will respond to the order, though the injunction stipulated guidelines on what shelter must be offered. Housing options must provide security, medical staff, showers and other hygiene facilities, and enough space to maintain social distancing. Officials have until Sept. 1 to relocate freeway-adjacent campers. While city and county officials don't have legal authority to force homeless people into shelters, they are allowed to enforce anti-camping laws to relocate them at least 500 feet from freeways. Frequency and Cost of Wildfires Grows Over Four Decades In California, record-breaking fires in 2017 and 2018 destroyed communities and dominated headlines across the country. A newly developed data set that catalogs wildfire damages dating back to 1979 places California's recent devastating fire seasons into broader historical perspective. The Nature Conservancy analyzed data from Cal Fire and the state's resource assessment program and determined that recent spikes in fire activity is part of a four-decade trend of not only increases in wildfire frequency and in areas burned, but also an increased rate of change over per-decade averages. For example, there were 3,356 fires during the last decade (2009-2018), which is 1.4 times greater than the per-decade average for the prior 30 years (1979-2009). Burn areas saw the same 1.6 times increase. But from the first decade of the analysis to the last--between 1979 and 2018--the last decade's fires burned twice the area (7.08 mil acres) as those in the first decade (3.37 mil acres). Similarly, costs have increased over time, with Southern California bearing the brunt of those shifts. In the 80's, fires did $30 million in annual damages (calculated by average replacement cost for structures). From 1999 to 2010, that sum ballooned to an average of $1 billion annually. In 2018 alone, fires cost an estimated $4.5 billion on areas in which the state takes fiscal responsibility. CP&DR Coverage: De Facto CEQA Reform Has Already Arrived Despite perennial calls to reform CEQA in order to facilitate infill development, CP&DR’s Bill Fulton argues that CEQA reform has essentially already arrived. In recent years, cities have shifted away from issuing mitigated negative declarations and have adopted more widespread use of exemptions. Data from the Office of Planning and Research shows that issuance of MNDs has declined by over 50 percent since 2008 while use of exemption have pushed up about 30 precent in that time span. Fulton calls it “a revolution.” Quick Hits & Updates Two nonprofit advocacy groups filed legal action against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in an attempt to secure stricter air quality standards in Imperial County. The EPA has justified its decision to weaken air quality standards by saying that pollution from Mexico is the primary cause of the county's poor air quality. The litigants emphasized the county's ability to limit its smog by taking steps like switching agricultural equipment from diesel to solar. In a split vote, the Douglas County Board of Commissioners approved bond issuance for the Tahoe South Event Center, the final step in the project's approval process. Tahoe Township proponents cited the expected annual economic impact to Douglas County's south shore of $40-$60 million, an estimated tax surplus of $1 million, an additional 550 year-round employment opportunities for local, 800 construction jobs for two years, plus economic diversification. A new report from National Center for Sustainable Transportation at University of California, Davis outlines benefits that accrue to individuals, households, and communities from decreased dependence on cars. Private transportation accounts for nearly $10,000 or 15 percent of the average Californian's budget--second only to housing as the largest fixed cost. California could avoid $8.2 billion in public health costs by one estimate, just by using infill to promote a shift away from driving. The Center for Biological Diversity and the Environmental Protection Information Center are suing the Trump administration for failing to protect the Humboldt marten. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service missed a stautorary deadline by which it was required to make a final determination on whether to list Humboldt martens for protection under the Endangered Species Act. Inspired by a proposed office expansion that would add 95,000 acres of office space and just 24 homes, a Mission District representative on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors is championing a rezoning plan that would limit office space to the ground floor level of new buildings. While the proposed project technically meets the block's urban mixed-use (UMU) classification, the intention behind UMU was a more even balance. Planning commissioners have unanimously backed the rezoning effort with minors. Commissioners excluded Dogpatch and Portrero Hill, which is currently under consideration for over 2,000 homes and thousands of square feet of office space on the decommissioned Portrero Plant site. Commissioners also amended the proposal to spare projects approved before Feb. 11. In hopes of attracting financial backers, the Sites Project Authority will scale back its plans for an ambitious reservoir project in Colusa County. Under the new approach, the price tag will be cut roughly 40 percent from $5.1 billion to $3 billion, and the reservoir's size will shrink by 15 percent. The amount of water the reservoir is expected to deliver on average was cut in half from 505,000 to 243,000 acre feet. A federal judge blocked the Trump administration's plan to pump more water through the San Joaquin River Delta. The ruling will create immediate impacts on water supplies: San Joaquin Valley's farm irrigation supplies were already curtailed by a dry winter, and will lose an estimated 52,000 acre-feet of water this spring. The preliminary injunction lasts until May 31 unless it's extended. Several housing developments - many of which included plans for affordable units - in Monterey are on hold after Monterey Peninsula water officials denied the city's request for additional water reserves to serve those apartments. The city stands to lose 181 affordable housing units without the additional water. Of 303 units slated for construction across six sites, only 92 at a single site will move forward. (See prior CP&DR coverage .) The California High Speed Rail Authority's first phase will generate $46 billion in labor income and $131 billion in economic output over the course of the project, authority officials announced recently. Since its inception in 2006, CHSRA reports $3.6 billion in labor income up to $9.2 billion in economic output. Two land use officials in California have gotten themselves in trouble indirectly related to the COVID-19 crisis. In a special two-hour remote meeting, the Antioch City Council voted unanimously to remove Ken Turnage from his seat on the city planning commission following an off-color social media posting about "culling the herd" during the COVID-19 crisis. The comments fueled an online viral uproar that culminated in the local builder's booting from his appointed commission term. Separately, in Vallejo , Planning Commissioner Chris Platzer appeared to chug an alcoholic beverage and then toss a cat that he had presented to his webcam. Platzer resigned from the commission soon thereafter. Landlords are challenging the legality of strict eviction bans that some California localities have passed that go beyond state eviction moratoriums to include banning late fees, giving tenants up to a year to repay back rent, and forbidding the posting of three-day pay up notices. While some cities have backed off after the threat of legal challenges, Costa Mesa said through a representative the city has no intention of easing restrictions. A real estate consultant has agreed to plead guilty to a racketeering charge for running point on a criminal conspiracy to bribe a Los Angeles City Council member in exchange for support for major redevelopment projects. At the center of the allegations is the planned redevelopment of the Luxe City Center Hotel. After a three-year planning effort, San Diego has released a draft document outlining the city's plan to upgrade its 5,700 acres of parkland and 13 reaction centers. The new parks master plan, which is currently available for public comment, is "focused on increasing access to all parks for everyone, regardless of their age, race, ability or geographic location," a city statement said. The Strategic Growth Council, in collaboration with the California Department of Conservation , is now accepting pre-proposals for funding Round 6 of the Sustainable Agricultural Lands Conservation Program (SALC) . All prospective applicants for Land Acquisition grants must submit pre-proposals by May 29, 2020. Planning grant seekers are encouraged, but not required, to submit pre-proposals as well.
- Not Abandoning A Project Is Not A Project
San Jose has been in a tussle for years now over rebuilding an historic railroad trestle in the Willow Glen neighborhood, adjacent to downtown. In the latest wrinkle – the second appellate court ruling in the last five years – the city prevailed in its effort to maintain a mitigated negative declaration even though the city was required to obtain a new Streambed Alteration Agreement from the California Department of Fish & Wildlife.
- The 'Demolition Man' Pandemic
I’ve been thinking about Taco Bell a lot. I think about it whenever I jog past my favorite coffee shop. I think about it whenever I feel pangs for a Hinano burger or a small batch sour IPA at The Daily Pint. I think about it whenever I look at my Yelp bookmarks. As I’ve written before, local stores and restaurants are bedrock institutions of the urban experience. Cities are fundamentally gathering places. But we don’t “gather” by the millions. We gather by threes and fours and ones and twos in restaurants, cafes, bars, and coffee places. They are as fragile as they are important. A world of ubiquitous Taco Bells was envisioned not by stoned teenagers but rather by the 1993 cinematic specimen Demolition Man . In it, supervillain Wesley Snipes is cryogenically imprisoned like so much seasoned beef and thawed in 2032 in the West Coast megalopolis of "San Angeles." Sylvester Stallone is a cop who was similarly frozen and similarly thawed so he can rearrest Snipes. In this sanitized future, vices like swearing have been eradicated and, chillingly, only minimal personal contact is permitted. Among these futuristic trappings, the bewildered Stallone finds but one dining option: everything from fine dining to fast food, comes courtesy of a preposterously hegemonic version of Taco Bell. The film does not quite explain how every other restaurant disappeared. But now I have an inkling: a viral pandemic may have screwed up the commercial real estate market. The shutdown imposed to slow the contagion of the coronavirus has already hastened the demise of an untold number of local outlets, especially restaurants. Rent is due, and takeout surely doesn’t cover the bill — especially in ultra-expensive markets like much of coastal California. Normally, after enough missed payments, landlords will evict. Vacancy does nothing for a landlord, so he or she has to find a new tenant. And, normally, if the landlord is savvy, or lucky, she gets a better tenant who can pay more and/or succeed longer. That’s sometimes sad, but it’s mostly fine. It’s capitalism. Here’s where we make a run for the border. (There’s a slogan that hasn’t aged well.) If a going concern—be it a decades-old dive bar or the experimental Peruvian pizza place--can’t survive at a given location in the pandemic economy, what could possibly take its place? And at what lease rates? Even if rents fall and/or landlords cut deals, literally no one other than enormous, well capitalized chains is going sign a lease any time soon. The most direct way to avoid this catastrophe is for landlords to give their tenants some breaks. If landlords and tenants (and landlords’ mortgage holders) can share the pain, everyone can make less money, but possibly survive. The question here — and this of course applies to residential real estate too — is where will the buck stop? Will everyone cooperate for the long-term good? Or will banks stick it to landlords? Will landlords stick it to tenants? Will tenants stick it to …whom? Though small retail tenants are the ones who contribute the most to the urban fabric, they have the least leverage and are the least fungible. A bank is mostly an assemblage of 1’s and 0’s. But independent restaurants are like endemic species in old-growth forests. They can’t just hippity-hoppity over to the next grove when theirs is chopped down. Assuming that Rambo is not about to parachute in and save America from the virus, I fear that the death rate for restaurants is going to be shocking — without a serious advocacy campaign, some effective local regulations, and/or a credible threat of having to drink Pepsi for the rest of eternity. I’m trying to address Steps 1 and 3 right now. As for Step 2, cities have traditionally allowed restaurants to perish before their eyes. They love to subsidize billion-dollar projects like stadiums, and they trip over themselves for Amazon . But they take for granted institutions that nourish their communities, economically, socially, and literally. Of course, these regulations and whatever emergency measures cities are concocting are too little, too late. At this point in the crisis, cities are going to have to rely on the resilience of restaurateurs and the enlightened self-interest of landlords. If that doesn’t materialize, though, and the restaurant apocalypse comes to pass because of unforgiving landlords, it’s going to be terrible. And it would be doubly terrible if landlords oust their tenants only to replace them with plywood and tax write-downs. And as people find other places to eat, planners will have to find new ways to bring life to their cities. Update: Since this blog was posted, Senate Bill 939 has been introduced to create some protections for small businesses, including a moratoria on evictions and the right to renegotiate rents.
- CP&DR News Briefs May 19, 2020: May Budget Revise; Transportation Shortfall; and More
Budget Revision Copes with Revenue Shortfall; Allocates $1.5 Billion to Local Jurisdictions The COVID-19 pandemic prompted dramatic changes to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposed 2020-21 budget, originally released in January and recently updated in the “ May Revise .” With state revenues expected to fall by $54 billions for the current and upcoming fiscal years, compared to projections, the May Revise reduces the upcoming year’s budget from $222 billion to $203 billion. Most notably for local governments, the May Revise allocates some of the state’s federal CARES Act funding to local governments: $450 million will be allocated to directly to cities and $1.3 billion to counties, which may allocate further funds to cities. That's on top of $1.5 billion in CARES funding already allocated to large cities and counties . The May Revise maintains previously announced programs to preserve and increase the state’s housing supply, including initiatives to streamline permitting and to leverage existing state and federal housing funds. The May Revise maintains $500 million in low-income housing state tax credits; the SB 2 real estate transaction fee, estimated at $277 million for 2020-21, for affordable housing; allocates $452 million from Cap-and-Trade auction proceeds for infill development. The May Revise includes the following reductions to housing and land-use related programs: $250 million in mixed-income development funds over the next three years; $200 million in infill infrastructure grant funds; $115 million in other housing program funds. Overcrowded Housing Puts Essential Workers at Risk of COVID-19 While most Californians have been staying home to reduce coronavirus transmission, the Public Policy Institute of California reports that overcrowded homes among California's essential workforce means a large number of Californians face substantial risk of illness within their own households. Physical distancing and self-isolation can be virtually impossible in crowded homes. As the high cost of housing is a stark reality for nearly two-thirds of Californians, finding affordable housing can mean cohabiting with several other people. California's overcrowding rate is well above the national average; the share of housing units with more than one occupant per room is 8.3 percent compared with 3.4 percent across the nation. essential workers - who make up one-third of California's labor force --are required to be physically present. Essential workers are more likely than nonessential workers to live in overcrowded housing--16 percent versus 12 percent. That share is almost double for workers in farming (31 percent), and food preparation/serving (29 percent). A recent study confirms there is a clear link between COVID-19 deaths and essential workers who live in overcrowded homes, though the relationship is muddied by regional differences. Transportation Agencies May Lose $11 Billion Due to Pandemic As California’s transportation agencies look to plan in the context of uncertain revenue streams because of the COVID-19 pandemic, findings from the Mineta Transportation Institute suggest that revenue shortfalls are not inevitable, even if the economy recovers slowly. The study used a spreadsheet model and well-known data sources to project transportation revenues under multiple economic recovery scenarios. The mean total projected revenues in 2030 range from $9.4 billion to a high of $11.4 billion in a scenario that pairs a fast economic recovery with Zero Emission Vehicle stimulus policies. Across all six scenarios, gasoline taxes remain at least half of revenues through 2030. But the user fees levied on ZEVs could replace and even exceed the state revenue that will be lost because of declining gasoline sales tax revenue. ZEVs are, on average, more expensive than standard cars, and that additional value accrues to the state through existing Transportation Improvement Fees. Opposition to Development Derives from Antipathy Toward Developers A new study from the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy finds new challenges for planners who are interested in addressing housing shortages through increased market-rate supply. Anti-developer sentiment, it turns out, is a powerful driver of anti-development attitudes. The survey of 1,300 randomized respondents in Los Angeles County evaluated how attitudes change in response to different context, or frames, including traffic and parking, neighborhood character, strain on services, and developer profit. The results showed that developer profit has the largest association with opposition to development by 20 points relative to a control group when survey respondents are told a developer will likely earn a large profit from the building. (See related CP&DR commentary .) CP&DR Podcast: Senate Bill 35; Horton Plaza; Telecommuting; Online Meetings; Project for Public Spaces On the recent episode of the CP&DR podcast , Bill Fulton and Josh Stephens discuss the latest planning news, and Josh interviews Meg Walker, senior placemaker at the Project for Public Spaces, about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on attitudes toward and the future of public space. Quick Hits & Updates In a split decision with wide-ranging implications, the United States Supreme Court ruled that states are not allowed to copyright their building codes or annotated guidance for those regulations. The decision could help make these codes more widely available as a public resource, and has implications for software companies seeking to automate code compliance processes. To better understand the connection between concentrated disadvantage and neighborhood change and eviction, a study funded by UCLA's Institute on Inequality and Democracy analyzed publicly available California eviction court records for the state's largest counties over a decade. The findings indicate that court-based evictions are significantly more likely to occur in neighborhoods with low-income households and racial minorities than in areas experiencing rapid neighborhood changes. A federal magistrate has dismissed Oakland's antitrust suit against the National Football League over the Raiders' impending move to Los Vegas, finding no evidence that the NFL's actions - the $378 million fee it charged the Raiders, or its refusal to expand beyond 32 teams - interfered with competition or violated the city's rights. To accommodate much-need housing for farmworkers, Ventura County is exempting a proposed housing development from the county's Save Open Space and Agricultural Resources (SOAR) initiative that requires voter approval to rezone agricultural land. With 360 planned units, the Somis Ranch farmworker housing project would be the largest farmworker housing development in the county. The UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge published a resource for public agencies and community organizations that help vulnerable renters. The study identifies the neighborhoods with the highest concentration of renters in Los Angeles County at the greatest risk of losing their jobs and homes because of the COVID-19 crisis. The study also identifies the challenges of implementing new temporary renter protection policies and recommends steps local officials and communities can use to target resources in recovery efforts. Mayor London Breed announced a plan to improve conditions in San Francisco's Tenderloin district, following a lawsuit against the city for failing to address the crowds of people encamped on Tenderloin's sidewalks. The plan's goals include offering "safe sleeping alternatives," and hygiene stations, along with closing streets to encourage social distancing. UC Berkley's Terner Center is recommending a federally-supported emergency rental assistance directly to the millions of households who are unable to make rent due to pandemic-related job and income loss. The center's analysis shows that nearly 16.5 million renter households have at least one worker in an industry likely to be immediately affected by efforts to slow COVID-19 spread. Los Angeles is putting measures in place to protect tenants from landlords who have reportedly attempted to skirt eviction moratoriums. Under a law passed by the City Council, renters could win penalties of up to $10,000 per violation, with disabled or senior tenants eligible for more. Tenant advocates have complained about landlords posting legally unenforceable eviction notices and attempting to lay claim to stimulus checks from tenants who don't understand their rights. The Berkeley City Council has signaled it may drop the option for developers to pay a fee in lieu of including affordable housing in otherwise market-rate projects if those projects are 10 or more units and within any of the city's federal Opportunity Zones. Created by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, an opportunity zone is a federally designated community where new investments are eligible for preferential tax treatment. (See related CP&DR coverage .)
- Sacramento Councilmember Wasn't Neutral In Quasi-Judiclal Action
The City of Sacramento will have to rescind its denial of a controversial gas station in the Curtis Park neighborhood because City Councilmember Jay Schenirer publicly opposed the project before the City Council considered it in a quasi-judicial hearing.
- CP&DR Podcast: Senate Bill 35; Horton Plaza; Telecommuting; Online Meetings; Project for Public Spaces
Bill Fulton and Josh Stephens discuss the latest planning news, and Josh interviews Meg Walker , senior placemaker at the Project for Public Spaces , about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on attitudes toward and the future of public space. Click here for access on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and other platforms. Related Articles The Silicon Valley Battle Over SB 35 San Diego's Iconic Horton Plaza to be Reborn as Tech Hub Will Telecommuting Stick? Planning Meetings Move Online Will Silicon Valley Be Ground Zero For SB 35?


