Click here for links to California Planning & Development Report 's ongoing coverage on SB 375, the important new law that links land use planning and greenhouse gas emissions reduction in California.Senate Bill 375 – the 2008 law that links land use planning and greenhouse gas emissions reduction in California – is big news in the planning and development world nationwide. Let California Planning & Development Report help you figure out what SB 375 means. As the leading planning publication in California, CP&DR has been watching SB 375 more closely than anybody else. You can find out more simply by clicking on the links below. Check back often because we will be updating this page frequently. GHG Targets May Signal End of Era of Sprawl After two years' worth of recommendations, staff reports, committee meetings, research, computer modeling and input from literally all corners of the state, the ARB approved greenhouse gas emissions targets pursuant to SB 375 late last month. Many have called the target-setting process – resulting in goals of at least 7% per capita emissions reductions for the state's four biggest metropolitan planning organizations by 2020 – the most exhaustive, collaborative, and data-driven regional planning process in the history of the state, if not the country.  GHG Emissions Target-Setting Process Grows T hick As you probably recall, the committee (known as the RTAC or "Are-Tack") was charged with making recommendations to the Air Resources Board for regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions from passenger vehicles, based on transportation systems and land use planning. The committee  report issued last September  was one of the first steps in implementing  SB 375 , the 2008 legislation that ties land use planning and transportation so as to reduce GHG emissions. Prop 23, Whitman Cannot Slow Down Progressive Planning Laws The entire California planning world now seems to revolve around combating climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But Proposition 23 – a long-term suspension of the state's climate-change law – is on the ballot this fall. The proposition is behind at the polls – but if it passes – will that be the end of SB 375, Sustainable Communities Strategies, greenhouse gas emissions analyses in environmental impact reports, and the whole industry that has been built up around climate change planning?  Santa Monica General Plan Anticipates SB 375 With the implementation of SB 375 still to come, cities across California will be challenged to revamp their general plans to meet goals of reducing vehicle miles traveled and promoting more compact development. In the race to write the perfect plan, the City of Santa Monica has, according to some, taken an early lead with the approval in July of a new land use and circulation element (LUCE). AB 32 Backlash Clouds Future of Smart Growth Not long ago,  when California's economy was booming and concerns about rising seas were mounting, California tapped into its environmentalist traditions to pass popular laws that promised to lead the nation in greenhouse gas mitigation. While there are no sure signs that the global climate has cooled, the same cannot be said for the state's support of anti-climate-change legislation, including smart growth law SB 375. State Adopts Guidelines For Analyzing GHG Emissions New California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines that urge public agencies to quantify and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from projects whenever possible have gone into effect. Outgoing Natural Resources Secretary Michael Chrisman signed the guideline amendments on December 30. Panel Urges More Work Before Regional GHG Targets Set A committee of experts appointed by the California Air Resources Board should come up with a list of best management practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions produced by new development by January 2010. The practices, combined with estimates of future transportation demand, should provide the basis for the board to establish regional targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions later in 2010, according to the advisory committee. Regions May Get More Climate Mandates, But Little Funding Sometime this year or next year, Congress will probably pass a climate change bill that tries to mimic SB 375's link between transportation patterns and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Cal APA Conference Follow-Up: Climate Change Confusion For the third consecutive year, the subject of climate change dominated the annual conference of the American Planning Association, California Chapter. What was evident during this year's event, which concluded September 16 in Squaw Valley, was that the issues are extraordinarily complex, and the available tools are not ideal. Federal Climate Legislation May Complement State Efforts With the election of President Obama and the emergence of a Democratic majority in Congress, it appears that the federal government may soon pass sweeping legislation to address greenhouse gas emissions. Based on a preponderance of research linking greenhouse gas emissions to urban sprawl and reliance on automobiles, a national program may usher in the next great trend in urban planning. Emissions Target Committee Releases Draft Report The committee advising the Air Resources Board on how to establish regional greenhouse gas emissions-reduction targets related to land use released a draft of its final report today. Bureaucratic Compliance With SB 375 May Not Reduce Driving Now that the age of greenhouse gas emissions reduction is upon us, I think there's an important point worth making: Government agencies in California can try to comply with SB 375 – or they can focus on reducing driving. To Truly Reduce Driving, California Should Imitate Portland At the risk of repeating what I and about a million other people have already said, I'll say it again: California could learn a lot from Portland when it comes to transit and its climate-related benefits. Shall We Comply With SB 375 Or Drive Less Instead? It seems to me that, like so many other policy initiatives, this whole SB 375 thing can either be a bureaucratic nightmare or a useful way to move forward. We can devote an enormous amount of time and attention to figuring out how to comply with the law ... or we can figure out how to drive less. SB 375 Advisory Committee Inches Toward Policy Issues The committee charged with recommending how the Air Resources Board should establish greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets under AB 32 and SB 375 spent much of its first half dozen meetings talking in about the technical details of measuring emissions and modeling for future emissions. That changed on Wednesday, June 3, when Regional Targets Advisory Committee (RTAC) member Richard Katz said he'd had enough. Locals Attack SB 375 As Inefficient Way To Go After Climate Change Even as local officials in Southern California attack the question of how to implement SB 375, they have slyly begun to suggest that the bill isn't the best way to attack the problem it supposedly addresses – greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is not clear what the locals will do with this line of attack, unless they are angling to try to go back to the Legislature to shift the responsibility for GHG emissions reductions away from land use and back toward technological improvements. SCAG Plan Gets Part-Way To Needed Emissions Reductions The Southern California Association of Governments has unveiled a new "conceptual land use plan" that concentrates development on a half-million acres of land near rail, bus rapid transit, and local bus lines in the six-county SCAG region. Initial numbers suggest that this plan would only get SCAG 60% of the way toward the region's likely SB 375 emissions reduction target. Cities, Counties Weigh SB 375 Strategies While Rules Evolve SB 375 is now law, but another year and a half will pass before the California Air Resources Board adopts the follow-up numerical regional targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. This puts California's cities and counties in a pretty big bind: How can they adopt plans for the future that will conform with the climate change law if they don't know what standard they are going to have to comply with? SB 375 Puts California In The Lead; Now What? Love it or hate it, SB 375 shifted the ground underneath planners feet, and the true slipping and sliding is only now beginning. In a story for Planning magazine, we present to law to a national audience. Meanwhile, CP&DR's Joel Ellinwood explains the legal, policy and practical implementation to his attorney friends. Yes, there's more to learn.  Climate Change Mandates: No, We Can't Make Them Go Away One Republican assemblyman has introduced legislation to repeal AB 32. Although eliminating AB 32 and related new laws and executive orders might make California planning simpler, we think the world has changed. Policy-makers and professionals are now focused on ways to implement the new laws. SB 375 Continues To Dominate Planning Discussion Senate Bill 375 dominated this year's UCLA Land Use Law and Planning Conference. If there was a common theme in commentators' numerous presentations, it was this: SB 375 has the potential to change dramatically both California's land use planning system and growth patterns, and the law is very much a work in progress. Asking Hard Questions About SB 375 Senate Bill 375 needs to be fixed, and it needs to be fixed this year. So says Rick Bishop, executive director of the Western Riverside Council of Governments. CARB Decision Places Even More Focus On SB 375 Process Five million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. This is the target – at least for now – that is likely to drive "smart growth"-style land use planning in California over the next few years. It's the tentative reduction target that the California Air Resources Board has assigned to the land use sector in order to help meet the state's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals by 2020. Greenhouse Gas Plan Defers To SB 375 Process An AB 32 Scoping Plan that places a great deal of emphasis on the SB 375 process was approved on December 11 by the California Air Resources Board. Rather than adjusting the target one way or the other, CARB assigned the SB 375 Regional Targets Advisory Committee – or RTAC, which has yet to be appointed – the task of refining the land use target. SB 375: It's An Incremental Change, Not A Revolution Supporters and opponents alike are touting SB 375 as the most significant land use reform bill in recent California history. When he signed it in September, Gov. Schwarzenegger called it the biggest bill since the California Environmental Quality Act 38 as approved years ago. Meanwhile, the hilariously over-the-top Orange County Register has called the bill "one of the most authoritarian, far-reaching and elitist bills that has ever made it to the governor's desk." In fact, it is neither. Regional Planning Bill Approved By Lawmakers Senate Bill 375 is alternately being described as the most important land use legislation since the California Coastal Act of 1976, and a step in the right direction. Only time will tell whether the bill is a landmark or an incremental step, but there is no denying that SB 375 author Sen. Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) aimed high. "At the heart of this effort," Steinberg said, "is the need to integrate our housing and transportation plans to create sustainable communities." SB 375 Is Now Law -- But What Will It Do? SB 375, the anti-sprawl bill signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last night, is both more and less powerful than it's advertised to be, and whether it leads to sweeping change depends on how aggressively California's regional planning agencies implement it. State Air Board Doubles SB 375 Emissions Target The other shoe has dropped on the SB 375 front, as the California Air Resources Board has more than doubled the target for greenhouse gas emissions reductions to be obtained through regional planning. The Disconnect Between SB 375 And Local Planning Can California and its communities fit together regional plans, local plans, state housing requirements, and new state requirements on greenhouse gas emissions reductions? Probably not, according to panelists speaking this morning at the California Chapter, American Planning Association conference in Hollywood. State Budget And SB 375: Incompatible Priorities Only three weeks after insisting that California should encourage dense development near transit lines, state lawmakers have approved a budget that yanks funding from transit and redevelopment. Should California Restrict Driving In Order To Cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions? A statewide cap on driving? Here's the thing nobody is quite willing to say out loud about implementing California's climate change law in the land use arena: The state may have to place an overall cap on vehicle miles traveled (VMT), even as it must accommodate more growth.

The Santa Barbara County Association of Governments did not illegally campaign for a ballot measure to fund transportation projects, the Second District Court of Appeal has ruled. By preparing a transportation plan and making presentations to member agencies and the public about the benefits of a proposed sales tax extension, the Association of Governments was simply performing its duty, the court determined. The Government Code and a key state Supreme Court decision preventing campaign activities by public agencies concern measures that have been certified for the ballot – not measures that are only being drafted and proposed, the court noted. The ballot measure in question – a 30-year extension of a half-cent sales tax in Santa Barbara County for transportation projects – passed with 79% voter approval on November 4. It is unclear what would have happened to Measure A had the Court of Appeal ruled for the opponents. In 2007, the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments (SBCAG) began work on a new transportation expenditure plan. After examining funding options, SBCAG recommended preparation of a measure to extend the half-cent sales tax, which was originally approved in 1989 and scheduled to expire in 2010. The association hired a consultant to identify the best arguments for the tax, likely opposing arguments and strategies to win voter approval. Staff from SBCAG met with civic groups to explain the plan and the importance of maintaining the sales tax beyond 2010. In March 2008, a newly formed group called Santa Barbara County Coalition Against Automobile Subsidies sued SBCAG, arguing that the association's promotion of Measure A interfered with the electoral process and that the association improperly used public funds for a "government-sponsored political campaign." At the time the coalition filed the lawsuit, Measure A had not qualified for placement on the ballot. A few weeks later, SBCAG filed a response, calling the coalition's lawsuit a SLAPP – a strategic lawsuit against public participation – that attempted to chill constitutionally protected activities. In June, Santa Barbara County Superior Court Judge Thomas Anderle upheld SBCAG's activities, finding they were within SBCAG's rights of free speech and petition. On appeal, Measure A opponents first argued that government entities do not have free speech rights. The Second District Court of Appeal, Division Six, ruled otherwise. Government agencies and their representatives do have First Amendment rights and they are "persons" entitled to protection by the anti-SLAPP law (Code of Civil Procedure § 425.16), the court ruled. Measure A opponents argued that SBCAG's use of public funds to advocate for the sales tax violated the state constitution and state law. The opponents based their constitutional argument on Stanson v. Mott , (1976) 17 Cal.3d 206. In Stanson , the state Supreme Court ruled the State Department of Parks and Recreation had improperly spent public funds to advocate the passage of a park facilities bond. Without clear legislative authorization, the court ruled in Stanson , "A public agency may not expend public funds to promote a partisan position in an election campaign." However, the appellate court noted, Stanson and similar cases involved measures that had already qualified for the ballot – not the drafting of a measure. Here, SBCAG had been authorized by the Local Transportation Authority and Improvement Act to do exactly what the association had done. "In essence," Justice Steven Perren wrote the court, "the complaint alleges that SBCAG was performing its statutory duty under the Act. SBCAG prepared a transportation expenditure plan and an ordinance necessary to place Measure A on the ballot in order to raise revenue necessary for the transportation program and projects set forth in the expenditure plan. It then circulated the plan to member agencies for approval, and made public presentations concerning the merits of the plan and extension of the county sales tax." The statute at issue – Government Code § 54964 – also addresses only partisan activity regarding a measure scheduled for the ballot. The law "does not prohibit the expenditure of public funds by local agencies to propose, draft or sponsor a ballot measure, including expenditures to marshal support for placing the measure on the ballot, or to inform the public of need for a sales or use tax or bond offering to provide revenue to pay for public improvements," Perren wrote. The court also rejected arguments that SBCAG violated the state Political Reform Act, which concerns campaign expenditures, and the federal Hatch Act, which specifically limits public employees' official activities. The Case: Santa Barbara County Coalition Against Automobile Subsidies v. Santa Barbara County Association of Governments , No. B209525, 08 C.D.O.S. 13599, 2008 DJDAR 16290. Filed October 28, 2008. Modified November 5, 2008 at 2008 DJDAR 16555. The Lawyers: For the coalition: Eugene Wilson, (805) 683-4648. For SBCAG: Jordan Sheinbaum, county counsel's office (805) 568-2950.

A proposed 400,000-square-foot convention center and 2,000-room resort hotel that was supposed to anchor the redevelopment of Chula Vista's waterfront is dead, but the demise of the convention center and hotel could open up the site to potential development of a San Diego Chargers football stadium. The Chargers have been seeking a location for a stadium and related commercial development and have considered two other sites in Chula Vista. Nashville-based Gaylord Entertainment notified City of Chula Vista officials on Monday that the company was "discontinuing its plans" to develop the convention center, hotel and ancillary retail uses on 32 acres. "We have been unable to overcome perhaps the biggest hurdle of the project – funding the enormous infrastructure costs associated with the bayfront redevelopment in a manner that will generate adequate financial returns for Gaylord, the port and the city," Gaylord Senior Vice President Bennett Westbrook wrote in a letter to Chula Vista Mayor Cheryl Cox and Port of San Diego President Bruce Hollingsworth. The city and the Port District have been working on a master plan for the 550-acre Chula Vista bayfront since 2003. The port controls most of the area, which includes extensive brownfields, an aging power plant, sensitive wetlands, warehouses and a harbor. The plan envisions a wide variety of uses (see CP&DR Local Watch , October 2006 ), but the Gaylord proposal was the cornerstone because it would provide up to $700 million in infrastructure funding and improvements. The city, the port district and Gaylord began negotiating in 2005, but the project appeared to founder. The parties missed several deadlines for finalizing the development deal, Gaylord experienced difficult talks with trade unions, and the city's chief negotiator, Laurie Madigan, resigned amid charges of a potential conflict of interest (she was later cleared of any wrongdoing and the city paid her legal bills). Meanwhile, Gaylord opened a similar project in Prince George's County, Maryland, and broke ground on one in Mesa, Arizona – and the Chula Vista bayfront planning process grinds on with the review of a 10,000-page environmental impact report.

There is clearly a disconnect between the state budget and implementing SB 375 on the land use side. But is there a disconnect between the state's process for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transportation planning as well? John Barna, the executive director of the California Transportation Commission (CTC), clearly thinks so. Speaking at one of the state's leading transportation conferences Monday in Monterey, Barna pointed out that California's transportation agencies must begin planning now for transportation projects that will be constructed between 2015 and 2020 – the deadline for the first round of greenhouse gas emissions reductions contained in AB 32. He said staff members at the California Air Resources Board – operating on their own schedule under SB 375, which calls for regional targets to be finalized in 2010 – do not grasp the long-term nature of planning and designing transportation projects. "Proposition 1B (the transportation bond issue passed in 2006) represents the final stage of implementation of the 1989-90 Blueprint for Transportation," Barna said at the "Focus On The Future" conference, put on by the Self-Help Counties Coalition . "We've been building the projects you guys dreamed up in the 1990s." The Self-Help Counties is the organization of counties promoting countywide half-cent sales taxes for transportation. The projects in the future will look different, Barna said. They will focus on "quality of life" issues because of SB 375, other environmental requirements, and local political pressure. These are the projects that will be planned and designed between now and 2015. Barna also said it would be impossible for the CTC and regional transportation agencies to build all the needed projects and reduce greenhouse gas emissions without a better long-term funding source than the current gas tax, which has proven more and more ineffective over time. He called on the Legislature to pass enabling legislation to permit congestion pricing. In a separate panel, members of two major federal commissions on transportation funding said that federal funding will have to be revised as well because the gas tax is dwindling as a reliable source. (The Highway Trust Fund went bust earlier this year and had to be bailed out by Congress.) Both Tom Skancke, a member of the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Commission, and Nossaman lawyer Geoffrey Yarema, a member of the National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission, said that a combination of a VMT (vehicle miles traveled) tax, congestion pricing, and other mechanisms will be required. – Bill Fulton

Planning ManagerCity of Long Beach, CA Located in Los Angeles County, the City of Long Beach is home to a population of 490,566. The City's Director of Development Services is currently seeking a Planning Manager to complement a department dedicated to transforming California's fifth largest city. As a key member of the Development Services Management Team, the Planning Manager oversees a staff of 28 FTEs and a budget of $3.7 million. The ideal candidate will have demonstrated success in bringing technical innovations and leadership to teams, and possess an impressive track record of customer responsiveness. The new Planning Manager will also be a results-oriented professional who exhibits superior communications and people management skills. At least five years of supervisory experience in a similar setting with comparable responsibility is expected. A Bachelor's degree in a relevant discipline is required. A Master's degree is strongly preferred. The salary range for this position is $103,556 - $155,334 and is supplemented by a generous benefits package that includes CalPERS 2.5% @ 55. The closing date for this recruitment is Friday, December 19, 2008. Visit www.tbcrecruiting.com for additional information and to apply online. Teri Black-Brann • 310.377.2612 Carolyn Seeley • 714.588.8846 TERI BLACK & COMPANY, LLC www.tbcrecruiting.com

Redevelopment agencies would permanently lose $400 million in annual tax increment revenues under a proposal from the Legislative Analyst's Office. That's about 9% of annual tax increment that would be shifted to schools in order to reduce the state's education funding obligation. The proposal is contained in a report on the state budget situation that new Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor released on Tuesday. The shift of money from redevelopment agencies to schools is listed as a "budget option" – and it's only one of several that should get the attention of anyone who cares about land use in California. Among other Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) recommendations (and the size of the budget impact for 2008-09 and 2009-10 combined): • Temporarily redirect tribal payments for transportation loans to the general fund ($163.7 million) • Shift the cost of Resource Agency department regulatory programs to regulated entities ($66.7 million) • Charge property owners for one-half the cost of California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection wildland fire protection costs ($239 million) Add to these recommendations, measures that are already contained the Gov. Schwarzenegger's revised budget proposal: • Eliminate state funding to transit agencies ($536 million) • Eliminate state Williamson Act subventions ($70 million) The LAO paints an incredibly grim picture of state finances. The nonpartisan analyst says the state needs $27.8 billion in "budget solutions" by June 30, 2010. Without corrective actions, the state faces annual budget deficits of about $22 billion through the 2013-14 fiscal year. The LAO speaks highly of the governor's special legislative session proposal because it contains realistic numbers, no borrowing, solutions that last longer than one year, and it balances revenue increases and spending cuts. Still, because the governor's proposed sales tax hike of 1.5% and borrowing from future lottery revenues would run only through the 2010-11 fiscal year, the state faces a shortfall of $9 billion to $11 billion in future years, according to the LAO. Thus the need for even more adjustments. In some ways, the recommended shift of redevelopment funding is old news. The LAO advocated for a permanent shift of tax increment away from redevelopment agencies earlier this year. But at that time, the recommendation was for a $200 million shift. "This is not really surprising," California Redevelopment Association (CRA) Executive Director John Shirey said of the latest LAO recommendation. Even if the redevelopment shift is politically acceptable – and it might be, compared with the deep cuts proposed for education, health care, social services and prisons – it might not be legal. The CRA intends to file a lawsuit later this month in Sacramento County Superior Court challenging the one-time, $350 million shift from redevelopment agencies to schools contained in the current budget (see CP&DR Capitol Update , October 2008 ). The CRA argues the budget maneuver is illegal under Proposition 1A from 2004, a statewide ballot measure that authorized a swap of state and local revenues, and which purported to block future state raids of local revenues. Several weeks back, the CRA asked redevelopment agencies if they would like to become plaintiffs in the lawsuit. "We got a lot of volunteers," Shirey said, "but we only want one or two. Otherwise, it makes for a lot more work in a lawsuit." Shirey declined to name the likely plaintiff agencies, but he said they will probably be agencies that are forced to cancel needed projects because of the revenue shift. Schwarzenegger has called for lawmakers to convene a special session to address the budget before a new Legislature is seated in early December. For good reason, Schwarzenegger hopes that lawmakers, especially the approximately 30 members not returning in December, will be willing to make the hard budget decisions that they have been avoiding. Two months ago, I said that the state budget and SB 375 contained conflicting priorities . If adopted, the LAO's recommendations would only deepen that conflict. – Paul Shigley

Barack Obama's background would suggest that he'll be a "HUD President" – but the president-elect also has a chance to weave together federal planning and development policies in a much broader way if he is not stymied by a staggering deficit. Obama is an African-American politician from the South Side of Chicago who began his career working as a community organizer in public housing projects. Traditionally, that would be the resume not of the president-elect, but of the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. And traditional HUD issues, such as urban poverty and local economic development in poor neighborhoods, clearly have great meaning to Obama. But the pervasive federal role in planning and development derives from a vast number of federal activities in many different agencies. By linking all these activities together, a president such as Obama could have enormous influence over growth patterns in communities all over the nation and everyday activities that result from those growth patterns. Ultimately, Obama's record will probably be shaped not by HUD-type programs – which amount to a tiny amount of money in the federal context – but by how he wields the federal government's Big Carrot and Big Stick. --------- UPDATE ---------- Obama advisor Valerie Jarrett revealed on Tuesday that Obama will create an Office of Urban Policy that will focus on cities and urban development, according to NPR . Jarrett offered few details, though.    -------------------------- The Big Carrot is the federal transportation program – a carrot that, frankly, has not been so big lately. Funded by federal gas tax revenues, transportation spending is probably the biggest-ticket item available to Obama in shaping communities. In the campaign, Obama picked up on the agenda long pushed by the Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program, which calls for coordinated federal spending on transportation infrastructure projects to reinforce metropolitan economies (see CP&DR Insight , October 2008 ). However, the current federal program is overbooked – largely because gas tax revenues have been flat. So Obama's biggest opportunity here would be the big "public works" program currently being pushed by congressional Democrats – about $60 billion to $100 billion. This money could set the tone for growth patterns nationwide, but there will be tremendous pressure to spend it immediately for projects that states and regions already have in the hopper. Caltrans director Will Kempton said the other day he's got $1 billion in projects ready to go . Such a rush would seem to increase, rather than decrease, the likelihood of pork-barrel spending. How Obama will use the Big Stick – federal environmental policy – is a little harder to discern. Most of the policy work done by his campaign focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and on energy policy. It's clear that these will be his highest environmental priorities – and he is likely to be deeply influenced by recent California experience on both. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's name has been floated as a possible Energy Secretary, and Schwarzenegger's air-quality chief, Mary Nichols, has been discussed as a possible Environmental Protection Agency administrator. Even if Schwarzenegger and Nichols don't join the Administration, California is far out front on the climate change issue. A cap-and-trade program seems inevitable with Obama as president. But many questions remain unanswered. Such a program could provide the largest new revenue source for the federal government in a long time. Will Obama follow conventional thinking and push that money back into "clean coal" and alternative fuels? Or will he follow the smart growth party line and put more of the money into public transit and other actions that could alter growth patterns and reduce overall driving? Indeed, will Obama attempt to take on the question of driving head-on – as the California greenhouse-gas debate has suggested is necessary – or will he focus instead of technological fixes? A frontal assault on driving would be politically unpopular, but Obama could instead use the federal levers – at the Department of Transportation, EPA, and even the Interior Department – to create powerful federal incentives for compact development patterns. The rest of Obama's campaign environmental positions – on wetlands, land and water conservation, and the like – were little more than conventional Democratic boilerplate. But Obama will face significant challenges on these fronts once in office, thanks in large part to the legacy of President Bush. The Bush Administration has devoted a lot of effort, for example, to administratively weakening the Endangered Species Act, and judicial weakening would seem easier with the John Roberts Supreme Court. Undoing the Bush efforts will require a lot of effort, but Obama  has given little indication as to how he will tackle the issue. His selection for Interior Secretary will certainly go a long way toward suggesting how he will handle this issue. And finally, there's economic development. In more ordinary times, this would mean a discussion of how Obama would approach the Commerce Department and, especially, the Economic Development Administration. But these are not ordinary times for economic development. Obama has made it clear that the economy is his highest priority, and "economic development" will clearly mean a wide range of policies – ranging from the approach to financial markets at the Treasury Department to the approach to alternative and clean energy at the Department of Energy (which all Obama, like all Democrats, touts as a major economic opportunity), as well as the strategy at the Commerce Department. Perhaps the most basic question in economic development is whether Obama will be a new economy guy or an old economy guy. Pundit Joel Kotkin pointed out the other day that Obama has strong ties to the new economy , and, therefore, Richard Florida's "Creative Class" argument has won the day. But Obama is from the Rust Belt, and he has clearly listened a lot to policy wonks who argue in favor of major investment in things like freight movement. So maybe the biggest question is not which side of the creative class argument he'll come down on, but whether he can find a way to blast past the Kotkin-Florida divide altogether and show how green technology, the creative class, and Rust Belt infrastructure all fit together as a formula for prosperity. Now that would be transformative. – Bill Fulton

In balloting November 4 on local land use measures in California, slow-growth advocates won 22 of 39 elections. Opponents of development rejected an ambitious plan for the San Diego waterfront, endorsed a tight growth control initiative in Redondo Beach, and extended agricultural land protections in Napa and Solano County. But pro-growth forces won high-profile victories in Oxnard, where a subsequent vote requirement was proposed for most projects, and in Santa Monica, San Marcos and Redwood City. Voters also appear to have narrowly backed a very controversial hotel and condominium project in Beverly Hills. Election day was a big one for transit. Voters in Sonoma and Marin counties approved a new sales tax to fund a commuter train through the two counties. Los Angeles County voters backed a half-cent sales tax to fund numerous transportation projects, including extensive rail and bus service expansions. In a portion of the Alameda County Transit District, voters doubled the parcel tax to fund bus service. In Berkeley, voters rejected an initiative to block a bus rapid transit lane on Telegraph Avenue. And in West Sacramento, voters endorsed a plan to spend sales tax revenue on a new streetcar system. In addition, the latest results show an eighth-cent sales tax to fund a BART extension from Fremont to San Jose is now winning by a handful of votes. Until the Santa Clara County election update was released on November 17, the tax had been losing. About 9,800 votes remain to be counted. Alameda County Alameda County Transit District, Area 1 In a victory for transit, voters doubled the parcel tax from $48 to $96 per year in portions of Alameda and Contra Costa counties to cover rising operating costs and decreased state funding. Measure VV: Yes, 71.9% (2/3 required) City of Berkeley Berkeley voters overwhelmingly rejected an initiative that would have prohibited establishment of bus rapid transit (BRT) lanes. The initiative was a reaction to a proposal for a BRT lane on Telegraph Avenue that backers hope will spur transit-oriented development. Measure KK: No, 76.7% (slow growth–no) In a referendum election, a streamlined historic landmarks ordinance in Berkeley was rejected. The 2006 ordinance overhauled and relaxed a very restrictive historic preservation scheme that appeared to be in legal jeopardy. Measure LL: No, 56.8% (yes = keep ordinance) (slow growth–yes) City of Pleasanton Voters approved competing growth measures – the citizen initiative PP and the City Council alternative, Measure QQ. Both measures will take effect, but it appears Measure PP's more stringent restrictions will effectively supercede Measure QQ's process. Measure PP prohibits houses on slopes of at least 25% and within 100 vertical feet of a ridgeline, but it exempts any project of 10 or fewer units. Measure PP also tightens the definition of a housing unit, which is important because Pleasanton has annual and ultimate housing caps approved previously by voters. The City Council's alternative requires the city to conduct a collaborative process to prepare a hillside and ridgeline protection ordinance. Measure PP (citizen initiative): Yes, 59.5% (slow growth–yes) Measure QQ (city alternative): Yes, 53.9% East Bay Regional Park District Voters in the two-county park district (Alameda and Contra Costa) approved a $500 million bond to acquire parkland and develop facilities. Measure WW: Yes, 71.8% (2/3 vote required) (slow growth–yes) Contra Costa County City of Martinez A $30 million bond to improve parks and recreational facilities, replace a swimming pool and expand the library won approval. Measure H: Yes, 68.7% (2/3 required) Town of Moraga Voters rejected competing ballot measures concerning lightly developed hillsides and ridges. Measure K would have expanded an open space zoning district by 1,700 acres. Development would be limited to 10- or 20-acre parcels with severe grading restrictions. Meanwhile, Measure J – backed by landowner and developer David Bruzzone and cast as a development agreement – would have protected 320 acres as permanent open space but would have allowed housing development on about 130 acres that Measure K sought to preserve. Measure J: No, 86.5% (pro growth–no) Measure K: No, 56.1% (slow growth–no) El Dorado County Ten years ago, voters approved Measure Y, an initiative that sought to block development that did not fully mitigate its traffic impact. Measure Y sunsets this year. This time, voters approved a less-stringent, 10-year extension. It applies only to single-family subdivisions of at least five units, permits the Board of Supervisors on a four-fifths vote to craft exceptions, and allows spending of federal and state funds for roads serving new development. Measure Y: Yes, 71.9% Imperial County By an overwhelming margin, voters approved a 40-year extension of a half-cent sales tax for transportation projects. The tax was scheduled to sunset in 2010. The extension is expected to generate $940 million, primarily for road improvements. Measure D: Yes, 83.5% Los Angeles County Voters backed a half-cent sales tax that would generate an estimated $40 billion over 30 years for numerous transportation projects, including extensive rail and bus service expansions. Among the planned projects are extension of the Expo Line from Culver City to Santa Monica, extension of the Gold Line from Pasadena to Azusa, and construction of a busway or light rail line into South Los Angeles. Passage of the sales tax also delays planned fare hikes for at least one year. Measure R: Yes, 67.3% (2/3 required) City of Beverly Hills Voters narrowly backed a plan approved in May to replace 217 rooms at the Beverly Hilton Hotel with a 170-room Waldorf Astoria and a conference center, construct up to 110 condominium units in two buildings of up to 18 stories, and provide 1,300 additional underground parking spaces. Officials estimate the project would generate $750 million for the city over 30 year. Opponents cited traffic as their primary concern. (As of November 14, the plan had received 7,313 votes of support, and 7,273 votes against.) Measure H: Yes, 50.1% (yes = project approval) (slow growth–no) City of Long Beach A special tax of $120 per residential unit to repay about $570 million in bonds for improvements to streets, storm drains, fire and police facilities, parks, libraries and health facilities failed. Measure I: No, 47.8% (2/3 required) City of Los Angeles Measure B was an Article 34 election on low-rent housing. Voters have already approved development or acquisition of up to 3,500 units in each of the 15 City Council districts. Measure B modifies the program to make it eligible for certain state and federal funding sources. Measure B: Yes, 59.4% (pro growth–yes) City of Redondo Beach Voters chose a slow-growth initiative over the city's less restrictive alternative. The Building a Better Redondo initiative (Measure DD) requires voters to decide on any "major change in allowable land use," any project of more than 25 residential units or 40,000 square feet of floor area, and any project with a density of more than 8.8 dwelling units per acre. The City Council-backed alternative (Measure EE) would have permitted voters to decide on rezoning of residential, park and open space lands, as well as any proposal to increase the height limit in the coastal zone. For years, Redondo Beach officials have sought to redevelop the waterfront and the site of a power plant, as well as Torrance Boulevard. Those efforts, however, have met with stiff resistance and may now need voter approval to move forward. Measure DD: Yes, 58.5% (slow growth–yes) Measure EE: Yes, 50.6% City of Santa Monica Voters said no to the Residents' Initiative to Fight Traffic (RIFT), which would have limited commercial development to a rolling five-year annual average of 75,000 square feet. In recent years, the city has permitted about twice that amount. Measure TT: No, 55.8% (slow growth–no) City of South Pasadena In a referendum, voters approved an amendment to a 32-year-old downtown redevelopment plan. The amendment clarifies that residential uses are permitted within the plan area. Residential use was ambiguous under the original plan. Measure SP: Yes, 55.4% (yes = plan amendment) (slow growth–no) Voters also approved two gigantic school bonds: The Los Angeles Unified School District's $7 billion bond – the largest local school bond in history – won 71.3% of the vote. The Los Angeles Community College District received 69.5% approval for its $3.5 billion bond to expand and modernize its facilities. Marin and Sonoma counties Sonoma Marin Area Rail Transit District A quarter-cent sales tax to fund development and operation of a 70-mile-long train service from Cloverdale in the north to Larkspur in the south passed in a second try. In 2006, the measure received more than two-thirds support in Sonoma County but failed because of lukewarm support in Marin County. The tax polled about 5 percentage points higher in Marin County and 3 points better in Sonoma County this time around. Measure Q: Yes, 69.1% (2/3 required) Monterey County A 25-year, half-cent sales tax for transportation came closer to passage this time, but still failed. In June 2006, 57% of voters backed a tax. Measure Z: No, 37.9% (2/3 required) Napa County As expected, extension until 2058 of a 1990 initiative prohibiting development on agricultural land without voter approval won handily. Measure P: Yes, 62.0% (slow growth–yes) Nevada County City of Grass Valley Voters rejected two slow-growth measures – the Managed Growth Initiative (Measure Z) and the Limited Growth Initiative (Measure Y). Put forth by slow-growth advocates, Measure Z would have prohibited changes to the general plan's land use element without voter approval. The initiative could have forced a vote on several large development proposals that are inconsistent with the land use element. Backed by Mayor Mark Johnson, Measure Y would have placed a cap on housing units until 2020 and required voter approval of boundary changes and annexations. Measure Y: No, 68.2% (slow growth–no) Measure Z: No, 72.2% (slow growth–no) Orange County City of Irvine The "Orange County Great Park Ratification and Improvement Act" keeps the City of Irvine in control of the park planned for 1,300 acres the former El Toro Marine Corps base. Detractors, including two of five Irvine councilmembers and the Orange County grand jury, recommended creation of an independent board to oversee park development. Measure R: Yes, 55.8% Rossmoor The proposed incorporation of Rossmoor, a 1,000-acre, 10,000-resident unincorporated island between Los Alamitos and Seal Beach failed badly. Opponents argued that the proposed city, which has very little commercial development, could not support itself financially. Voters also rejected proposed utility taxes that would have helped fund a new city. Measure U-A: No, 71.7% City of San Clemente Voters approved a measure prohibiting rezoning or development of open space lands without voter approval. The measure follows on the heels of a February referendum vote blocking a condominium development on land now designated as open space, although it contains a private golf course. A much smaller majority also backed the unrelated Measure W, an advisory vote on the LAB North Beach project. It is a proposed retail/restaurant/office/parking development on three acres of city-owned land. Measure V (open space restrictions): Yes, 71.8% (slow growth–yes) Measure W (LAB North Beach project): Yes, 53.4% (pro growth–yes) City of San Juan Capistrano Voters showed their support of open space by approving Measure X, which prohibits any change in designation of open space lands without voter approval, and Measure Z, which authorizes the sale of $30 million in bonds to acquire and enhance open space. Measure X: Yes, 78.8% (slow growth–yes) Measure Y: Yes, 70.3% (slow growth–yes) City of Seal Beach An initiative to impose a 25-foot height limit on the Old Town area won easy approval. Measure Z: Yes, 72.6% (slow growth–yes) City of Yorba Linda A City Council-sponsored measure to prohibit the use of eminent domain for economic development projects won. Measure BB: Yes, 79.3% (slow growth–yes) San Benito County City of Hollister An exemption from a 2002 voter-approved growth cap that limits housing development to 244 units per year won approval. Measure Y exempts the downtown area from the cap. Measure Y: Yes, 52.0% (pro growth–yes) San Bernardino County City of Loma Linda A measure ensuring permanent preservation of 1,675 city-owned acres in the South Hills for open space and recreation proved popular. Measure T: Yes, 87.4% (slow growth–yes) City of Needles An advisory measure asked voters about a Fort Mojave Indian Tribe plan to build a casino on 300 acres of tribal land adjacent to Interstate 40, four miles west of town. Voters said, "Hit me." Measure H: Yes, 73.0% (pro growth–yes) San Diego County Proposition A would have established a regional fire protection agency and imposed a $52 annual parcel tax to fund the agency; however, the measure failed to pass the super majority threshold. The fire safety issue is very high profile because large conflagrations have killed 27 people and destroyed more than 4,000 homes in San Diego County since 2003. Proposition A: No, 36.7% (2/3 required) City of Del Mar Voters backed the Garden Del Mar specific plan – a mixed-use project with 20,000 square feet of shops and restaurants, plus 38 condominium-style offices and underground parking on a 25,000-square-foot vacant lot. The election was required by 1986 initiative. Measure G: Yes, 84.9% (pro growth–yes) San Diego Port Authority An initiative to amend the port district master plan to permit a private entity to build a 96-acre deck 40 feet above marine cargo facilities failed badly. The initiative's backers, businessmen Frank Gallagher and Richard Chase, said the deck could provide a site for a football stadium, a sports arena, a convention center expansion, parking or other amenities. Port district directors lost a lawsuit to keep the initiative off the ballot. Proposition B appeared on the ballot in the port authority's five member cities – San Diego, National City, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach and Coronado. Proposition B: No, 70.4% (pro growth–no) City of San Marcos Voters rejected a slow-growth initiative and approved a far more modest city-backed measure regarding ridgeline development. Proposition O would have barred most land use designation changes without voter approval. The measure purported to be retroactive to July 23, 2007 in an attempt to block a 217-acre specific plan that seeks to create a dense, mixed-use downtown with extensive parkland (see CP&DR Places , September 2007 ). Proposition N, a city-backed measure that will prohibit changes to the city's ridgeline protection overlay zone without voter approval, did pass. Proposition N (ridgeline protection): Yes, 69.0% Proposition O (citizen initiative): No, 63.0% (slow growth–no) San Francisco Voters approved an $887 million bond to fund a seismically safe replacement for San Francisco General Hospital (Measure A). They very narrowly rejected establishment of an affordable housing trust fund with a minimum of $88 million in annual funding, including dedication of 2 1/2 % of property tax revenues for 15 years (Measure B). They backed a charter amendment permitting the city to provide funds for development of a 65-acre development at Pier 70. Voters backed creation of an historic preservation commission (Measure J). Measure A (hospital bond): Yes, 83.8% Measure B (affordable housing): No, 52.4% (pro growth–no) Measure D (Pier 70 development): Yes, 68.2% (pro growth–yes) Measure J (historic preservation): Yes, 55.6% (slow growth–yes) San Luis Obispo County City of Atascadero An initiative intended to block a proposed Wal-Mart Supercenter gained no traction. Measure D would have limited retail stores to 150,000 square feet, and would have limited stores with 5% of floor space dedicated to nontaxable goods (i.e. groceries) to 90,000 square feet. Wal-Mart has an application pending for a 146,000-square-foot store at Del Rio Road and El Camino Real. Voters also elected three City Council candidates who support the Wal-Mart project because of the sales tax it would generate. Measure D: No, 67.8% (slow growth–no) San Mateo County City of Redwood City Two land use measures concerning the bayfront that appeared somewhat similar both failed. Backed by environmental groups, Measure W would have prohibited development of open space, tidal plains and bayfront without two-thirds voter approval. The initiative was aimed at potential development of 1,400 acres of former salt flats owned by Cargill. The City Council-backed Measure V would have prohibited development of the Cargill property without majority voter approval. Measure W: No, 62.8% (slow growth–no) Measure V: No, 51.1% Santa Barbara County Extension of a half-cent sales tax for transportation for 30 years won approval. The existing tax is scheduled to expire in 2010. Two years ago, an extension of the tax failed to garner two-thirds voter support because of questions about a proposed commuter rail line between Santa Barbara and Ventura. This time around, most of the tax revenue was designated for roads and highways, and the tax passed easily. Measure A: Yes, 78.8% (2/3 required) City of Buellton Slow-growth advocates carried the election here. Measure E prohibits prior to 2025 the expansion of the city limits or the extension of sewer or water service beyond the boundaries without voter approval. Measure F would have imposed the same requirements but only through 2014. Measure E: Yes, 68.9% (slow growth–yes) Measure F: No, 76.7% (pro growth–no) Isla Vista Recreation and Park District Voters rejected a complicated land swap between the district and the Santa Barbara County Redevelopment Agency. Existing parks would have been lost but the end result would have been development of new park facilities, subterranean parking and a community center. A 1998 initiative required two-thirds voter approval for sale or transfer of the district's real property. Measure D: No, 71.9% (2/3 required) (pro growth–no) Santa Clara County A one-eighth cent sales tax to provide additional funding for a BART extension to San Jose (Measure B) appears to have narrowly passed. The tax would be an addition to an existing half-cent sales tax for BART and other transportation projects. As of November 17, the tax was winning by 24 votes out of more than 611,000 cast. Meanwhile, voters backed Measure A, an $840 million bond for seismic upgrades to the public hospital and to help build a replacement to the San Jose Medical Center, which closed in 2004. Measure C, a required advisory vote on the Valley Transportation Plan 2035, won approval. Measure D, which eliminates the requirement that future transportation plans be subject to advisory votes, also won. Measure A (hospital bonds): Yes, 78.1% (2/3 required) Measure B (sales tax): Yes, 66.7% (2/3 required) Measure C: Yes, 69.6% Measure D: Yes, 63.9% City of Gilroy A $37 million bond to construct a new library passed. Measure F: Yes, 69.0% (2/3 required) City of Morgan Hill Voters narrowly said no to a proposal to modify a housing cap to permit development of 500 units in downtown as part of a downtown revitalization plan. As of November 17, the downtown exemption was losing 6,893 to 6,887. Measure H: No, 50.02% (pro growth–no) Solano County The extension of a slightly modified version of the existing Orderly Growth Initiative until 2028, and ratification of an updated county general plan, won easy approval. Scheduled to expire in 2010, the Orderly Growth Initiative prohibits most development of agricultural lands and directs growth to incorporated cities. Measure T: Yes, 67.7% (slow growth–yes) Stanislaus County The latest attempt for a half-cent sales tax to fund transportation failed. The tax would have lasted 20 years and half of the revenue would have paid for repairing and upgrading city streets. Measure S: No, 34.0% (2/3 required) Ventura County City of Fillmore Voters in this small town were in slow-growth mood. Measure H was a referendum of a 51-unit housing development off Goodenough Road. Measure I limited development in the North Fillmore Area to 350 housing units, instead of the planned 700. Measure H: Yes, 60.5% (yes = no project) (slow growth–yes) Measure I: Yes, 57.0% (slow growth–yes) City of Oxnard What might be the most draconian growth-control initiative on this fall's ballot failed. Measure V would have required voters to decide on any development project of at least 5 residential units or 10,000 square feet of commercial, retail or industrial space that was proposed within five miles of an intersection with a level of services worse than C. Essentially, the measure would have put every project before voters. Councilman Tim Flynn, who also failed in his challenge to incumbent Tom Holden for mayor, was Measure V's chief proponent. Both the business community and organized labor opposed Measure V. Measure V: No, 61.5% (slow growth–no) Yolo County City of West Sacramento A 20-year extension of a quarter-cent sales tax due to expire in 2013 was approved. Also winning was Measure U, which asked whether the revenue should be spent on levee improvements and construction of a proposed streetcar system. Measure V (sales tax): Yes, 57.8% Measure U (levees and streetcars): Yes, 64.9%

The housing market slide that began during late 2006 and picked up speed in 2007 has become a full-fledged disaster in 2008. Housing starts are at their lowest level since anyone started keeping track, and prices continue to fall. Neither developers nor lenders are willing to start new projects, and analysts say the market may not turn around for at least three or four years. Statistics for housing starts and sales indicate that the Central Valley and the Inland Empire are the hardest-hit areas, with starts down by more than 90% in places such as Merced and the Yuba City/Marysville area. Sales of new single-family houses in San Bernardino and Riverside counties have fallen by 80% since the first quarter of 2006. Stockton, Modesto and Merced continue to be national foreclosure leaders. Housing starts for the year are projected to reach only 66,000 statewide, according to the California Building Industry Association. That's down nearly 70% from the 2004 and 2005 peaks of about 210,000 starts per year, and down 50,000 units from last year's weak performance. For 2009,the CBIA – which is usually overoptimistic – predicts only 67,000 starts. The bright spots – or at least the less dim spots – are in multi-family housing projects, especially those in urban areas and close to transit. While single-family starts have dropped 78% in three years, multi-family starts have decreased "only" 41%. "Housing starts tend to fluctuate considerably, especially in areas like the Central Valley and the Inland Empire where there is more available land and fewer regulations," said Jed Kolko, an economist at the Public Policy Institute of California. "On the coast, where there is less available land and more regulation, we see much less fluctuation over time. So, the change in housing construction in San Francisco and San Jose, for instance, is much milder than what we see in inland parts of the state." Depressing anecdotes and horror stories abound from around the state: • When a bankruptcy trustee tried to auction off SunCal's 6,000-lot McAlister Ranch project in Bakersfield, which has a Greg Norman-designed golf course and infrastructure in place, nobody came to the auction. • The price of raw land in the Bakersfield area as fallen from about $150,000 an acre to less than $20,000 an acre. • The median price of a single-family house in Contra Costa County sunk to $295,000 in September, down 50% in one year, according to DataQuick. • Three out of four sales in Merced County are foreclosure sales. • Real estate agency Dyson and Dyson, which deals primarily with upper-end homes, has closed all of its Coachella Valley offices. • Because of cash flow constraints, Pleasant Hill-based Delco Builders has stopped all construction despite having entitlements in hand for a number of subdivisions. • DR Horton, the largest homebuilder in the country, has put thousands of acres of raw and entitled land across California on the market at prices less than what the company paid. • Pardee Homes asked for and received a one-year extension on a 500-home development in Canyon Country. • SunCal suspended work in October on redevelopment of the Oak Knoll Naval Medical Center in Oakland, where the company plans nearly 1,000 housing its and some retail space. SunCal paid $100.5 million for the property three years ago. • A proposed 39-story condo and hotel tower overlooking Petco Park in downtown San Diego went bust in October, and the lender took over the property. • Developers with entitlements to build 1,500 housing units and a shopping center at The Village at Mission Lakes in Desert Hot Springs appear to have walked away after partially completing two commercial structures. • Developers of three condominium towers in downtown San Jose have received the city's permission to rent the vast majority of units because sales virtually stopped. • Watt Communities has put on hold its plan to build two five-story, mixed-use buildings containing more than 200 housing units in downtown Pomona. • Nearly every reuse project at the former Fort Ord military base in Monterey County is on hold, including the ballyhooed, new urbanist East Garrison development (see CP&DR Local Watch, January 2006). • Fresno's high-profile Running Horse project – 800 houses around a Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course – is mired in bankruptcy with no houses built. Donald Trump considered buying the project but backed out when the city declined to provide a subsidy (see CP&DR Deals, December 2007). • Stalled development of a country club housing project in Placer County forced developer CC Myers to declare bankruptcy. "The reality on the development side of things," said Renata Simril, Forest City Residential West senior vice president, "is that if projects have got development permits and have got their financing, but they have not started construction, they are holding." Approved projects that lack financing have almost no chance of moving forward in the near future, Simril added. "The debt market has completely frozen up," she said. "The banks are continually raising the equity requirement," said Donald Brackenbush, who heads the real estate advisory firm Public Private Ventures. "Now it's up to 40% or even higher, and you have to get your project appraised. But they don't know how to appraise it because there aren't any comps." "Those that borrowed money to buy land will give it back to the bank, or they will simply turn to dust," Brackenbush said. What happened? Essentially, explained Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at University of Southern California's Lusk Center, the system went from a flood of capital to a drought of capital in a short period. "There were a lot of available loans around at very attract interest rates" for both builders and homebuyers, she said. "What's amazing is that the credit markets have dried up and are fueling this decline." "Where a lot of those new housing starts were was in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire as everyone was building farther and father out," Conway said. "Overbuilding is always associated with real estate cycles." Even when there was "overbuilding," however, development industry leaders and state officials said construction was not keeping pace with the state's 500,000-a-year population growth. Six years ago, Brackenbush, who serves on the executive committee of the Urban Land Institute's Los Angeles Chapter, lead a planning exercise to figure out how to house 6 million additional people in Southern California. "Now," said Brackenbush, "not only are we foreclosing and houses are sitting vacant, we're not building any new ones." Some cities and counties are trying to spur construction. For example, a number of cities in Orange and Sacramento counties and elsewhere have agreed to defer collection of impact fees until the final building inspection stage. Some jurisdictions have postponed scheduled fee increases. The City of Morgan Hill has relaxed its requirement that builders make 13% of new units affordable. But nothing that local government does seems to have much effect. "We've had some encouraging news in the last few weeks that sales are up a bit and inventory is down," said Robert Rivinius, president of the CBIA. Still, construction is very slow. He recommended that Congress pass a true tax credit for homebuyers – unlike the program approved earlier this year that Rivinius said is more of a loan. He also urged local governments to reduce impact fees, and the state to create a permanent funding source for affordable housing. Simril said now is the time for governments to undertake aggressive planning. She cited the City of Los Angeles' specific plan process for about 600 acres of industrial land at the Cornfields and Arroyo Seco. The process is likely to result in preservation of some industrial uses, but also in identification of mixed-use development opportunities and upzoning for high-density housing. The city also is preparing a master environmental impact report. All of this will ease the process for builders, she said. What Los Angeles is talking about may be where the market is headed. Real estate devaluation, the number of available exurban units, high energy costs and even state policy appear to be changing the homebuilding and homebuying calculus. "What's happening now is that different real estate products are becoming desirable," said Conway. "The developers are not going to do these huge developments where they build hundreds of houses way out there." Rivinius conceded that the few houses getting built are smaller and less fancy. "Many builders are changing their product some to make their homes for affordable. I think you'll continue to see that," he said. Noting that land prices have not fallen so sharply in coastal urban areas, Brackenbush predicted that high densities and transit will be the focus of future housing development. "They said in 1981, ‘Stay alive 'til 85,'" Brackenbush recalled. "They said in 1991, ‘Stay alive 'til '95.' I don't know what they are saying now. 2015?" Contacts: Delores Conway, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, (213) 740-4836. Renata Simril, Forest City Residential West, (213) 488-0010. Donald Brackenbush, Public Private Ventures, (626) 795-0919. Jed Kolko, Public Policy Institute of California, (415) 291-4483. Robert Rivinius, California Building Industry Association, (916) 443-7933. CBIA housing starts and sales statistics: www.cbia.org/go/cbia/newsroom/housing-statistics /

A charming anecdote from the childhood of the future Queen Victoria can be found in Lytton Strachey's classic biography. When still a young noblewoman of five or six, she is introduced to the aging King George IV. "Give me your paw," says the fat, dissolute monarch to the future Empress of India, who duly complies. At that moment, the biographer writes memorably, "Two ages touched hands." Two ages also touch hands, in a metaphorical way, in the specific plan for Loma Vista in Clovis. Instead of a king and future queen, however, we have two ages of California land development encountering each other in one of the last remaining corners to be developed in this Fresno County city of 95,000 people. The first age is the 19th Century, when much of Clovis and neighboring Fresno were divided into large, square lots by land barons for sale to small farmers. Those farmers grew wheat and planted vineyards in land newly irrigated by canals (known locally as "church canals") that connected the Kings River to the Fresno area. To a remarkable degree, the regular, checkerboard street grid of Clovis preserves the boundaries of those old farming tracts, most of which date from the 1880s. The other age in this historic encounter is the early 21st Century, influenced strongly (if not always systematically) by the orderly doctrines of the new urbanism. A quick glance at the Loma Vista specific plan offers some of the symmetrical, geometrically regular shapes that have made new urbanist planning so attractive, at least at the map level. This part of the city carries a lot of planning weight on its shoulders, so to speak. The city is 6,000 housing units short of the regional "fair-share" mandate, including several thousand unbuilt units of affordable housing. Although that housing goal is probably unattainable either within the city or its sphere of influence, Loma Vista is planned for dense residential development, surrounded by a moat of conventionally dense single-family neighborhoods. The city has already set aside about 145 acres for the Reagan Educational Center, a campus combining elementary, middle, and high schools. The plan also sets aside a large area for "residential planned community." The surveyor part of the plan is not exciting. The map of Loma Vista lacks spatial hierarchy or an obvious center, even though the city in fact has well-defined downtown and historic districts. What the street pattern lacks in visual interest, it probably makes up in efficiency, because the regular street pattern likely works well for cars and trucks. It is odd, however, within this "flat" hierarchy of 80-acre farm parcels to see the crystalline new urbanist outlines of the Loma Vista specific plan, redolent of a very different chapter of later 19th Century-early 20th Century history: the garden cities of England, in which entire communities converged on well-defined town centers. Accordingly, the Loma Vista plan centers on the Reagan campus, with a colony of "very high density" homebuilding and high-density homebuilding (brown and tan) surrounded by commercial and office space (violet). Perhaps the master plan designer is a little too fond of the garden city/new urbanist prototypes. At the least, I wonder whether the semi-circle of very-high-density buildings at the center of the plan will look as elegant in elevation as they do in the plan: These footprints promise to become mid-rise or even high-rise buildings, and the semi-circle could end up looking like enormous dolmens in some latter-day Stonehenge. On the other hand, the master planner has oriented these tall buildings around a park or green space — a traditional but very welcome device amid this crush of dense, traffic-spewing development. Maybe the plan of Loma Vista is too urban for Clovis; I can imagine people flying over town at a height of 30,000 feet and mistaking the high school and the housing scheme for a grand civic center. The real trouble with this new urbanist scheme is that it does not go far enough. Once we travel beyond the boundaries of the well-knit center of schools-apartment buildings-commercial space, the formality gives way to conventional suburban site planning. Crystalline order dissolves into oddly shaped blotches and swatches, such as the mid-density residential neighborhood to the immediate east (orange). The contrast between formal and informal planning here looks as incongruous as a picture of the Mona Lisa stuck in the center of a Jackson Pollack canvas. How will developers arrange their two- and three-story apartment buildings on this irregular site? Does this type of planning lead toward orderly streets and boulevards, or the look of scattered bric-a-brac? And, as mentioned before, the master-planned community directly to the southeast may or may not comport to the new urbanist scheme next door. The promise of orderly planning seems to be breaking up all around us. Our disappointment, however, turns out to be relatively minor, when we consider the paseos. By far, these pedestrian pathways are best things about Loma Vista. The planners have designed these tree-covered paths to lie at a 45-degree angle to the rest of the old grid so the paseos have minimal contact with vehicular traffic. Even better, the paseos connect with Clovis' existing network of trails that cut across the farmland immediately east of the city, taking an enviable open-space network and making it even better. The result is a linear park that provides a meaningful offset to the crowding and traffic of high-density development. The formal gizmo at the center of the specific plan may be pretty, but the paseos are the big payoff of Loma Vista. They may not be as dramatic as the meeting of a king and a queen, but this encounter between an old grid and new planning ideas is very good news for Clovis.

The California Redevelopment Association (CRA) is suing the State of California for shifting $350 million in redevelopment tax increment to school districts. The shift was part of the state budget approved in late September (see CP&DR Capitol Update , October 2008). The CRA argues that the shift is unconstitutional under Proposition 1A from 2004, a state funding measure that also included protections for local government revenues. A property rights lawsuit that initially appeared it would cost the City of San Diego nearly $100 million has concluded with the city being awarded $4.3 million in attorney fees. In 2001, a jury awarded developer Roque de la Fuente II $94.5 million for inverse condemnation of his property in Otay Mesa. The jury's award followed a San Diego County Superior Court ruling that planning for an international airport in the area of de la Fuente's business park and the diversion of truck traffic to a new border crossing amounted to a taking of private property because they impacted development of de la Fuente's project. The Fourth District Court of Appeal overturned the inverse condemnation ruling, threw out the $94.5 million award, and sent the case back to Superior Court for a new trial on de la Fuente's claim that the city had breached a development agreement (see CP&DR Legal Digest , November 2006 ). In June, San Diego County Superior Court Judge Linda Quinn ruled for the city, finding that the developer had failed to file a proper claim with the city before filing the lawsuit. More recently, Quinn awarded the city all of its attorneys fees for the nine years of litigation – a total of $4.3 million. Former San Francisco Supervisor Ed Jew has pleaded guilty in federal court to extorting $40,000 from the owners of eight Quickly tapioca drink shops in exchange for helping them get use permits. Jew, who resigned in January after only a year in office, pleaded guilty to mail fraud, extortion and soliciting a bribe. He is scheduled to be sentenced in February 2009. Jew also faces state charges that he lied about living in Burlingame so that he could run for office in San Francisco's Sunset District. A luxury hotel and housing development approved in September by the Healdsburg City Council is headed into court. A group called Citizens for Sustainable Solutions filed a lawsuit in October alleging that the city did not adequately analyze the impact of the Saggio Hills project on water supply, greenhouse gas emissions and aesthetics. Developers Tony Korman and Robert Green propose a 130-room, high-end hotel and 70 "multi-million-dollar" homes on more than 200 acres on the north edge of town. In exchange for project approval, the developers agreed to provide 36 acres and $3 million for a community park, a graded, 14-acre site for affordable housing, $1 million toward affordable housing development and a fire station. The Sonoma County Local Agency Formation Commission still needs to consider annexation of the site to Healdsburg. City officials say the hotel, with rates averaging $700 per night, could roughly double the city's transit occupancy tax revenue to more than $5 million annually. Opponents say their gripe is with the number of large houses, not the hotel. Tuolumne County supervisors have approved a revised plan for the Mountain Springs project. Seven years ago, supervisors approved a 1,500-house subdivision on the 1,100-acre site near Sonora (see CP&DR Local Watch , October 2001 ). When opponents gathered enough signatures to force a referendum election on the project, however, the local investors behind the project asked supervisors to rescind the project's approval. In October, the county approved a 600-home project that also preserves 160 acres of agricultural land and limits the number of second units to 26. Opposition appears to have greatly decreased. The City of Sacramento has finally completed acquisition of decrepit and vacant properties along two blocks of the K Street Mall after decades of conflict and litigation with property owner Moe Mohanna. The city's Housing and Redevelopment Agency will pay $18.6 million for Mohanna's nine properties that line a block and a half of K Street and one block of 8th Street. Although the city has had some success redeveloping the K Street corridor, the stretch of properties controlled by Mohanna have remained underused and in poor repair. The city's redevelopment agency intends to provide some properties to furniture store owner Joe Zieden, who proposes a row of new stores on K Street between 7th and 8th. The agency intends to sell other properties to hotel developer Bob Leach for construction of a 400-room Hilton and a separate mixed-use project. The largest conservation acquisition in Sonoma County history was completed in October, when the Sonoma Land Trust reached an agreement with the owner of the 5,630-acre Jenner Headlands. The trust, local, state and federal entities, and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation will jointly pay $36 million for the property, which was owned by a New Orleans doctor and already subdivided into 40 lots. The property is a mix of old growth forest, recently logged lands, grazing lands and 3 miles of coastline. The Land Trust said it would like to make the property a state park eventually. A company called World International LLC has completed its purchase of the Diablo Grande project in a bankruptcy court proceeding. Reportedly controlled by Mexican developers, World International paid $20 million for the 28,500-acre project in the hills of Stanislaus County west of Interstate 5. The project went into bankruptcy in March after the owner, pharmaceutical company owner Donald Panoz, failed to attract buyers. He had been asking $150 million for the project, which is approved for 2,300 housing units, a golf course resort and extensive retail and office space. So far, only 400 houses and two golf courses have been built. The project may be most famous among planners for a 1996 court decision rejecting an environmental impact report because the county postponed a water supply analysis. Critical habitat for the endangered San Bernardino kangaroo rat would be scaled back by 77% under a plan approved by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The agency in October published its intention to remove 26,500 acres in San Bernardino and Riverside counties from the critical habitat designation, leaving about 7,800 acres along rivers and washes for the species. The change becomes effective November 17. The "K rat" has been the bane of the Inland Empire's development industry for nearly two decades because the endangered species listing has forced lengthy environmental reviews and shut down development in some areas. But while the Building Industry Association of Southern California praised the Fish and Wildlife Service move, the Center for Biological Diversity vowed to sue.

With an economy based on construction, shipping and warehousing, and heavy industry – and with some of the most conservative politics in the state – the Inland Empire would appear to be an unlikely place for a "green" movement. However, a public-private initiative is under way that seeks nothing less than a transformation of the region to one based on green technology and sustainable living. The Green Valley Initiative was launched in 2007 by developer Ali Sahabi, president of SE Corporation. Best known as the developer of Dos Lagos in Corona, a mixed-use project that has won American Planning Association and Building Industry Association awards, Sahabi established the nonprofit Green Institute for Village Empowerment last year. That organization has been the key sponsor of the Green Valley Initiative (GVI), which has since attracted endorsements from more than 25 public agencies and private entities and attracted more than 500 people to various gatherings. "It's really about taking a long-term, holistic, sustainable view of how you change the economy," explained Daniel Cozad, GVI's program director. "I don't think anybody else is attempting to do this on such a grand scale." Doug Henton, chairman and CEO of Collaborative Economics, which has provided research and guidance to the GVI, called the project "more systematic and comprehensive" than green technology and development efforts in Silicon Valley, Sacramento and the San Diego region. "What's intrigued me is that it has brought together the two counties and the business sector," Henton said of the GVI. Still, the San Bernardino and Riverside counties region has a long ways to go before it might be considered a paragon of green virtue. The two counties have grown rapidly to a combined population of 4.1 million people living primarily in low-density, automobile-oriented housing tracts. Green building practices are extremely rare. Trucking, warehousing and railroad companies – which are heavily dependent on burning diesel fuel – employ about 117,000 people in the two counties. Monitoring stations in Perris, Banning and the San Bernardino Mountains report some of the most polluted air in the country. Plus, as Cozad acknowledged, "This is a conservative area – a red portion of a blue state." Although GVI boosters have been attracting supporters, not everyone is rushing toward the bandwagon. As one of the bigger GVI proponents, San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors Chairman Paul Biane has urged all 24 cities in the county to approve a GVI resolution that promises the city will "participate in the development and implementation of sustainable model standards, policies and programs to benefit the Inland Empire region." Thus far, only seven cities in the county have signed on, although more are scheduled to consider the resolution. Biane spokesman Scott Vanhorne called the cities a "mixed bag." "It's a pretty broad concept. Some of them haven't really wanted to bite," he said. "These are business-oriented, conservative cities," added Cozad. "But we have a number of them that see the economic benefits and the quality of life benefits of the green economy." Cozad said the GVI has had to confront confusion and misunderstanding more than skepticism. Some people initially thought the project was an anti-development effort, while others complained the GVI was simply a "greenwashing" of existing practices. The GVI is neither, he said. So what exactly what is the Green Valley Initiative? Organizers offer up this statement: "The Green Valley Initiative reflects a new vision for the Inland Empire, combining sustainable green practices and technology with an economic development plan being developed by major stakeholders from throughout the Inland Empire. It integrates social, economic and environmental forces to bring new jobs, greater opportunities and a higher quality of life to the region." The problem to confront, according to the GVI, is that Riverside and San Bernardino counties lack both enough jobs and the right kinds of jobs. The result is that 30% of region's workforce, including some of the most-educated workers, commute to Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties for employment. For San Bernardino County, one big attraction is the development of alternative energy. Kramer Junction Solar Farms, located west of Barstow, is already one of the world's largest solar facilities, and Palm Springs Wind Farms is one of the largest wind energy facilities, noted Vanhorne. Both counties have the natural resources — sun, wind and relatively inexpensive land – to accommodate many more facilities, Cozad added. But the possibilities are almost endless. Southern California Edison, for example, is talking about installing solar panels on top of millions of square feet of warehouse rooftops in the region. Officials overseeing conversion of three large military bases in the region are also quite interested in the effort. This month, GVI representatives are scheduled to meet with leaders of the local shipping, distribution and warehousing industry to talk about greening the distribution system. Although that might seem far-fetched, "green logistics" is the name of the game because of AB 32 mandates for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and because energy efficiency is crucial to reducing costs, Henton said. And there is no reason why new homes in the region should not have green aspects included, such as solar panels and technologically sophisticated utility controls that minimize energy and water consumptions, Henton said. The idea is to build bridges between the public and private sectors, and between different public agencies, Cozad said. In the past, local governments have fought to protect their turf. Those battles have not all ended, but GVI is trying to get cities and counties to share because they are all part of one region. The sharing may be as simple as promoting common water recycling and drought-tolerant landscaping standards among the cities and two counties. "You wouldn't think of this area of California as being green – on the political side or physically, given the amount of rainfall we receive every year," Cozad said. That's where public education and outreach can be useful in convincing people that changing business as usual is beneficial both environmentally and economically. "I don't know if it's going to be a tough sell," added Vanhorne. "People are seeing what's happened with the price of oil. I think the public's mindset is going to be determined by the market." The GVI in October qualified for federal Economic Development Administration funding. Green Valley Initiative boosters intend to fill out a board of directors and name an executive director in preparation of a "second launch" of the initiative in early 2009. Contacts: Daniel Cozad, Green Valley Initiative, (909) 747-5240. Doug Henton, Collaborative Economics, (650) 404-8120. Scott Vanhorne, San Bernardino County Supervisor Paul Biane's office, (909) 387-4833. Green Valley Initiative website: www.greenvalleynow.org